After turning things around in ACC play to reach a bowl game for the first time in the Brent Pry era, Virginia Tech looks to finish their season with a victory to get to 7-6 and achieve their first winning record since 2019.
The Hokies will face an intriguing matchup against a Tulane team that has an interim coach after Willie Fritz left for Houston and will be without several players who have opted out for various reasons (draft, transfer portal) including star QB Michael Pratt. However, the Green Wave still are a quality program with plenty of talented players left to give the Hokies a test.
So here are my keys to the game and prediction for the Hokies against the Green Wave.
Keys to the Game
1. Protect the Football
Virginia Tech has done a good job of protecting the football this season, but the Hokies will be tested in this game by the Tulane defense. The Green Wave are tied for third in the country in turnovers forced this season with 25 this season. While a lot of those are interceptions, Tech knows that the Green Wave are eager to get turnovers whatever they can.
Because of that, the Hokies have made protecting the football an even greater emphasis in bowl preparation with Brent Pry emphasizing Tulane's strength at forcing turnovers during ball protection drills at practice this week. For the Hokies, they've made it a priority all year to protect the football as Kyron Drones shared even though they may be emphasizing it a little more this week.
“It’s been a big focus with us all year. We’ve been protecting the ball all year, working on ball security drills each and every day. I feel like this is a program that does well with ball security. I’ve never been part of a program that does it this much. We know Tulane gets the ball out so that’s what we’ve been focusing on this week, but we’ve been doing it all year," Drones said after practice on December 23rd.
Now it will help Drones that he faces a Tulane defense that won't have its top two cornerbacks to give the Hokies issues. Regardless, Drones will need to be sharp with the football in this game and avoid some of the high-risk, not-too-high at best reward decisions that he's made at times this season, a couple of which could have easily been interceptions.
Tulane knows that they'll probably need some turnovers to have a reasonable chance in this game with their depleted roster. If Tech can protect the football well, they'll be in great shape to win the Military Bowl.
2. Stop the Run
One player that Tulane will have in this game is bellcow freshman RB Makhi Hughes who ran for 1,290 yards and seven touchdowns this season while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. With Tulane lacking Pratt and at least two of their starting receivers and the conditions set to be less than ideal, it seems like a safe bet that Hughes will be leaned on heavy.
Add in the fact that Tech's run defense has been their weakness on the defensive side of the ball, and the Green Wave know that their best path to victory is by running the football effectively.
Now one thing that doesn't help the Hokies is the fact that they will be without both starting safeties for this game in Nasir Peoples and Jalen Stroman. Jaylen Jones and Mose Phillips have been inconsistent this season, especially in run defense and will certainly be tested in this game.
Tech's play at linebacker has also been inconsistent, but the Hokies will need Alan Tisdale to be sharp in his final game as a Hokie along with Keli Lawson and Jayden McDonald. Both Lawson and McDonald have an opportunity to set the tone for what will likely be an offseason battle for the starting will LB after Lawson had an up and down season while McDonald fought his way back up the depth chart this season.
Tulane needs to run the football well in order to have a reasonable chance at winning this game. If the Hokies can contain Hughes and the Tulane rushing attack, they'll have a great chance at getting the job done.
3. Quick Passes Could Be Valuable
Tulane's pass defense has been a weakness for them with teams completing over 65% of their passes against them this season. Combine that with the fact that Tulane will be without two of their starting DBs for this game and the opportunity is ripe for the Hokies to attack Tulane's secondary.
Rainy conditions will add some difficulty to accomplishing that, but the lack of wind as a factor in this game means that you can largely run your normal offense. With the rain factored in, this is game where the Hokies would be smart to run many of their quick passes that have been successful throughout the season.
Tech has had plenty of success with their screens led by Jaylin Lane and would be wise to feed him and Da'Quan Felton on screens early and often. Swing passes to Bhayshul Tuten against a Tulane secondary that may lean on more zone to support a depleted cornerback group could be quite valuable in this game.
Tech has also ran some great slant plays with their full assortment of receivers along with using RPOs in timely moments to create big, quick pass plays for speedy guys like Lane. On a day where rainy conditions may create some challenges for pushing the ball down the field, the quick passing attack and RPO passes can give the Hokies the passing balance that they need to keep the Tulane defense on its heels.
Prediction
Tulane will give Virginia Tech a solid test to end the season and while they still have some talent on the current roster, the losses they've suffered due to coaches leaving plus NFL Draft and transfer portal opt outs is going to be tough for them to overcome. This feels like a game where the Hokies can use their talent and depth advantages to wear the Green Wave down.
The conditions could slow things down some, but a lot of Tech's success has been built around its rushing attack and its ability to get the ball in space quickly with Bhayshul Tuten combined with some misdirection. Drones and Tech's receiving corps also should be a mismatch for Tulane's depleted secondary even in less than optimal conditions.
Additionally, Tulane's defensive staff largely seems to be gone at this point with a few assistants already following Willie Fritz to Houston, including DC Shiel Wood, basically told to get out of town by incoming Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall. It's fair to wonder if Tulane's defensive operation could be messy in this game given all that is gone making it harder for the Green Wave to adjust.
Tulane will give the Hokies a solid challenge, but Virginia Tech will get the job done to achieve its first winning season since 2019.
