After its first 5-0 start since 2022-23, Virginia Tech heads to the Bahamas to participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. Their opening-round matchup is Colorado State (4-1) at 5 p.m., Nov. 26 on ESPNU.
The Hokies are coming off a couple too-close-for-comfort wins against Charlotte and Bryant, while the Rams look to bounce back from an 83-81 defeat at the hands of Denver.
The winner of this game will move on to the tournament semifinals to face the winner of Saint Mary’s (6-0) vs Wichita State (4-1) at 2:30 p.m. on Thanksgiving. The losers of said games will face off in the consolation at 8 p.m. on Thursday.
The other teams in the field are South Florida (3-2), Vanderbilt (5-0), VCU (3-2) and Western Kentucky (4–0).
Colorado State, coming off of NCAA Tournament wins in back-to-back seasons, is 47th nationally in NET rating, but lost 83% of its production from a year ago including first-round pick Nique Clifford. It also replaced now-Minnesota coach Niko Medved with first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh, who was on Medved’s staff for his entire seven-year tenure and was his associate head coach last season.
The Rams are led by Kyle Jorgensen, a 6-foot-9 sophomore making the most of his opportunity as one of the only returning rotational pieces. Jorgensen is averaging nearly 18 points per game, albeit on unsustainable 65/50/87 shooting splits. He is coming off of a career-high 29 points in the loss to Denver.
Brandon Rechsteiner, who spent his first two collegiate years in Blacksburg, is the Rams floor general and averages 13 points per game on 50% three point shooting.
Let's take a look at the keys to the game:
Can Colorado State keep up its gigantic three point disparity?
Over 54% of Colorado State’s shot attempts come from long range - the third-highest mark in the country. They also boasts the nation’s sixth-highest three point percentage at nearly 45%. All five of the Rams starters are shooting at least 40% from deep, including marksman Josh Pascarelli who is making over three triples a game.
Virginia Tech has been slightly above-average in their three-point accuracy at roughly 36%, but their shot diet has been far more balanced than the Rams. Just 37% of the Hokies shot attempts come from behind-the-arc.
Tech only has one pure sniper in backup guard Jaden Schutt, who has made at least two triples in four of his five outings. Beyond Schutt, they have a number of capable three point shooters but few specialists. Leading scorer Amani Hansberry does most of his damage down-low, while point guards Neoklis Avdalas and Ben Hammond like to use pick-and-rolls to get to their spots in the mid-range.
Virginia Tech’s lesser three-point reliance theoretically makes them a more consistent offense, capable of winning even on an off-night. On the other hand, a hot-shooting team like Colorado State can beat any team on any given night if it gets hot enough.
Can the Hokies neutralize the Rams on the glass?
So far, that’s been easier said than done for Colorado State’s opponents. The Rams have the fifth-best total rebounding percentage in the nation, grabbing over 60% of all rebounds. The 6-foot-10 Illinois-transfer Carey Booth leads the way with over nine rebounds per game, and Jorgensen averages nearly seven. That being said, they have yet to face an opponent with the size and athleticism of Virginia Tech.
Tech is also well-above average in the rebounding department, behind their Tobi Lawal and Amani Hansberry-led frontcourt. Lawal, who registered a 49.5 inch vertical in a combine event at VCU two years ago, uses his 6-foot-9 frame and superhuman bounce to grab rebounds over even the tallest of opponents. He has grabbed at least 12 boards in four of the first five games. Hansberry plays more-so below the rim, but averages over eight rebounds a night, due to strong hands and solid positioning.
It is paramount that Virginia Tech cleans up the glass - specifically on the defensive end - as a three-point heavy team like Colorado State feeds off of offensive rebounds leading to kick-out threes.
How will the Rams defend Neoklis Avdalas?
The Hokies run an NBA-style offense around Avdalas’ pick-and-roll decision-making, so he is the focal point of any opponent's defensive gameplan. Less than two weeks ago, Charlotte opted to take the ball out of his hands by any means necessary, double-teaming him on every screen. While Avdalas finished with just 10 points and a season-low two assists, he was able to pass out of the double teams which allowed Tech to play four vs three.
The alternative is playing drop-coverage like Providence did in the Hall-of-Fame Tipoff. When his shot is falling, Avdalas has proven to be unguardable against this sort of defense, scoring 33 points and adding six assists to lead the Hokies to an overtime win on Nov. 8.
Regardless of the strategy, the Rams also have to decide who gets the Avdalas assignment - likely 6-foot-3 Pascarelli or 6-foot-6 Jevin Muniz. Contending with Virginia Tech’s size is no easy feat, and the Hokies will certainly have a mismatch if Colorado State keeps the same starting lineup.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 89, Colorado State 78
Young and the Hokies offense will once again lean on Avdalas in a high-stakes game and he will reach 20+ points for the second time this season. Hansberry will return from his one-game absence and join Avdalas in double figures with a near double-double. Guards Jailen Bedford and Schutt will each knock down a couple of triples.
Jorgensen’s and the Rams three point shooting splits will fall back down to earth at about 35%. Pascarelli will lead the way with 20+ points, but it won’t be enough to stop the Hokies from moving to 6-0.
