After their first loss of the season, Virginia Tech (5-1) takes a trip to the U.S. Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam Tournament. They’ll take on BYU (6-0) in their first game of the tournament.
The Hokies are coming off a 65-56 loss in their first road game against JMU this past Sunday and looking to bounce back against a BYU team that is off to a hot, undefeated start to the season, coming off a 79-62 win against Weber State.
They’ll be a part of the Island Division of the tournament and will either face Oregon State (5-1) or No. 17 ranked Vanderbilt (6-0) depending on the results of both games.
Virginia Tech’s game against JMU was up and down and saw the Dukes control the game for the most part. While the Hokies showed effort, the inconsistent play was too much for the Hokies to hold onto the comeback and find a win.
BYU is coming off a disappointing season, going 13-17 and only four wins in conference last year, and then lost in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Recently, BYU hasn’t been a strong team and finds itself in a difficult conference and is looking to build in the new era under a new head coach.
The Cougars find themselves in year one under head coach Lee Cummard, who was their associate head coach last year under their last head coach, Amber Whiting. On the court they are led by star sophomore guard Delany Gibb, who’s averaging 16.3 points with four boards and six assists per game. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Gibbs hasn’t played their last two games and has been seen in a boot on the sideline of their last game.
It would be a tough loss for BYU if Gibb can’t go, but they do have other quality players, with three others averaging double-digit points in Olivia Hamlin, Lara Rohkohl, and Marya Hudgins. Hudgins was the key contributor with 23 points in their win against Montana, and center Rohkohl led the Cougars with 18 points in their last game against Weber State.
The Cougars and Hokies also have a similar opponent early in the season with Coastal Carolina. The Hokies won their battle 82-59, and the Cougars got a 91-57 win. The score differential isn’t huge, and BYU was backed by a 33-point fourth quarter, and Virginia Tech was held back by a third quarter where they only scored four points.
Here are the key storylines for the game.
Bounce Back on the Glass
In their game against JMU, the Hokies got crushed on the glass and were out-rebounded by 20 boards, 45-25. That was on the scouting report, and they failed to execute. I don’t expect that to develop into a bigger problem through the season, as they showcased they can be a team that can control the boards with the addition of transfer Kilah Freelon, who's averaging 10 rebounds per game and had an 18-rebound game earlier in the season, along with Kayl Peterson and Carys Baker in the front court. Despite being a smaller team.
The Cougars will pose a similar challenge to the Dukes, as BYU averages 45 rebounds per game, headed by Lara Rohkohl with 8.8 and Bolanle Youssuf with 6.7 per game, both of whom are listed at 6-foot-3. They'll aim to bounce back against a team that may be better at rebounding than JMU. The Hokies don't have to win the rebound battle, though that would be extremely beneficial, but the last thing Virginia Tech wants is to be outrebounded as badly as they were against JMU.
Shots have to fall
After a season where the Hokies were one of the best shooting teams in the nation, they’ve struggled to find that same success this year. Through their first six games, they’ve shot over 40% from the field in half of them, and their best game from three has been 33%.
Thankfully for the Hokies, BYU isn’t the best shooting team either. They hold a higher shooting percentage from the field, by a small margin, but aren’t a great 3-point shooting team with only 28% from beyond the arc.
Virginia Tech knows what they can get from Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker, but they are hoping for others to step up. Sophie Swanson, a transfer from Purdue, came in as someone who can be a quality shooter from three but is still working on a minutes restriction from an apparent injury, along with Mackenzie Nelson and others looking to improve their shooting. It’s hard to believe that the shooting woes will persist, but this game against BYU would be a great time to get into rhythm.
Play all Four Quarters
It is evident one of the biggest struggles for Virginia Tech has been their ability to play consistent basketball through the full 40 minutes of the game. There have been games where they’ve gotten off to a fast start, like their game against Coastal Carolina, but come out sluggish in the second half. Outside of their game against JMU, they haven’t faced steep competition, so they’ve been able to mask sluggish and low-scoring quarters to win games seemingly comfortably in the end.
However, inconsistent basketball can be killer for the Hokies, as we saw against JMU, if they can’t find their rhythm throughout a game's 40 minutes. Head coach Megan Duffy has talked about going on runs a lot in her press conferences, and that has been a common theme for this year's team. They have their moments where they can go on a solid offensive run, but are followed up by the other team punching back.
It will help that BYU isn't a strong shooting team and will most likely be missing their best player, so this is an ideal opportunity for Virginia Tech to execute on defense and allow the offense to remain steady across all four quarters.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 65, BYU 60
Fortunately for the Hokies, I think they caught BYU at the right time with the injuries. If I knew Delaney Gibb was 100% for this game, I think the Cougars would pull out with the win. Hamlin also was taken out of their last game with an injury, which will be something to watch. While the Cougars still have players who can provide quality offensive production, I think BYU’s offense could slip at times and allow the Hokies to claw out a win in a contest I don’t think finds much separation for either team.
For the Hokies, I think they’ll lean on Wenzel’s offense; meanwhile, they’ll also need support from Mackenzie Nelson, Mel Daley, and Samyah Suffren as the Cougars also run a more guard-heavy lineup.
The Cougars will win the rebound battle, but I think the game against JMU was a reality check for the Hokies, and they will be able to keep it close enough to where it doesn’t become an overwhelming problem with Kilah Freelon finding herself back recording a double-double.
This game will be a big mile marker for both teams, as the Cougars will face their biggest competitor this season and the Hokies will see how they can bounce back after a tough loss.
