Welcome to the 2025 Commonwealth Cup. While most Virginia Tech fans have been looking ahead to next season, that changes some today as the 3-8 Hokies look to play spoiler while No. 18 Virginia knows they are two wins away from the ACC title and the College Football Playoff but a loss today would most likely end those dreams.
So with all that said, let’s dive into our gameday preview.
Keys to the Game: You can check out Chris Payne’s full keys to the game here. It will be a tall task for the Hokies to pull the upset tonight, but they will live and die by their ability to keep Kyron Drones clean in the pocket. Tech has heavily struggled to throw the football this season, something they will need to do successfully tonight. One major hindrance in the Hokies’ offense has been the large quantity of sacks they have given up- 27 total for 195 yards lost. If Virginia Tech is to find offensive success, keeping the pocket clean is a must.
Virginia Tech X-Factor: Virginia Tech will look to control the game on the ground as they’ve done all season. Tech is currently averaging 188 rushing yards and ran for 194 yards against Miami last week, who has been one of the best rushing defenses all year. While the Hokies will look to be dominant on the ground, they will have to complement it in the passing game. Kyron Drones will be looked upon to do just that. In five of the last six games, Drones hasn’t had a game with more than 125 yards, and that most likely won’t do it against Virginia. Drones will have an impact on the ground, but the offense will look to be more than the one dimensional running team they’ve been all year for their best chance to pull off the upset. I’d look for Phillip Montgomery to lean on the passing attack a little more than they’ve had in the past few weeks.
Matchups to Watch: Virginia offensive line versus Virginia Tech defensive line. The Cavaliers’ projected starting offensive line features one true senior, two redshirt seniors, and two graduate transfers, as well as a redshirt junior and a transfer senior as backups. Virginia Tech’s starting defensive line is composed of three transfer seniors and a redshirt junior in Kemari Copeland, and a graduate transfer and transfer senior in the two-deep. Virginia’s offensive line has been key to their success, whilst Virginia Tech’s defensive line has not recorded a sack since the Louisville game. I look for this matchup to play an influential role in who comes away with the Cup tonight.
Injury Report: Virginia Tech took a few dings in their game against Miami to some of their most important players in star RB Marcellous Hawkins and WR Ayden Greene. They'll both be questionable going into the game. They are key starters that Virginia Tech will need if they want to upset the Cavaliers. In the secondary, freshman CB Jojo Crim will miss the game and Joseph Reddish is questionable as well.
Key Stat: Virginia Tech ranks third in the ACC in rushing offense with 2,070 yards on 415 carries, 13 touchdowns, 188.2 rushing yards per game, and five yards per carry. Virginia ranks fourth in the ACC in rushing offense with 2,067 yards on 431 carries, 26 touchdowns, 187.9 yards per game, and 4.8 yards per carry. The difference, however, will be made defensively where Virginia ranks fourth in rushing defense (1,188 yards on 358 carries, 15 touchdowns, 108 yards allowed per game, and 3.3 yards allowed per carry) and Virginia Tech ranks 13th (1,642 yards allowed on 380 carries, 23 touchdowns, 149.3 yards allowed per game, and 4.3 yards allowed per carry).
Feature Story: Check out Adam Firebaugh’s story on the dichotomy of this year’s Commonwealth Cup as Virginia Tech makes a massive investment across the whole program with James Franklin’s arrival while UVA benefits this season from a NIL surge. You can read more about that here.
This was compiled by Tim Thomas, Chris Payne, and Cole Jackson-Paige.
Prediction
Tim Thomas
It’s hard to not take UVA but if the Hokies want to pull off the upset, they have to dominate the game on the ground and take control of the game early, forcing UVA to chase. They also have to create some turnovers, something that the Hokies haven’t done all season.
However, Chandler Morris has the talent to take advantage of VT’s pass defense issues and the Hokies lack of offensive balance will hinder their offense too much. In the end, Virginia is the better team and will take care of business against the Hokies.
