Just days after grabbing the media’s attention with a 107-101 win over Providence in an early-season game-of-the-year contender, Virginia Tech (2-0) gets a chance to avenge last year's loss to Saint Joseph’s (2-0); this time in Cassell Coliseum for a 7 p.m. tipoff on Wednesday, Nov. 12.
About 11 months ago, the Hawks embarrassed the Hokies 82-62 in the Holiday Hoopfest with rosters hardly resembling that of the present day.
Saint Joseph’s returns just 36% of their scoring production from a year ago, and more importantly replaced their former head coach, Billy Lange with interim Steve Donahue after Lange darted off to the pros to work for the New York Knicks. Donahue is a veteran head coach of 25 years with stints for Cornell, Boston College, and Pennsylvania. While he was very successful in the late 2000s, Donahue has only managed 19 wins in the last two seasons and hasn’t made an NCAA tournament appearance since 2018.
Virginia Tech regrouped with transfers from around the country and prospects from overseas to join their four returners: Ben Hammond, Jaden Schutt, Tyler Johnson and Tobi Lawal.
In fact, last year’s matchup against the Hawks was something of a turning point for Mike Young’s Hokies, as it was Ben Hammond’s first career start.
Let’s take a look at some keys to the game for the Hawks and Hokies:
Will Three-Point Shooting Splits Revert to the Mean?
Virginia Tech shot 42.9% from long range against the Friars on Saturday. Neoklis Avdalas, Jailen Bedford and Jaden Schutt shot a combined 10-15 from deep. That’s the same squad Young recently told us wasn’t a great shooting team. I’ll take his word for it and expect a bit of regression from behind-the-arc.
Saint Joe’s, meanwhile, can’t buy a three so far this season. While their roster isn’t exactly a bunch of flame-throwers, sub 28% three point shooting seems to be a number unlikely to hold for the rest of the season. Anthony Finkley, in particular, is due for a solid shooting night after posting 35, 22, 86 splits to begin the season.
Virginia Tech will rely on the three-ball slightly more than Saint Joseph’s, and if the shots are falling like Friday, the game could get ugly in a hurry. More likely, the Hokies three point splits fall back below 40% and the Hawks rise above 30% in what should make this a more competitive game.
Will the Hokies Continue Their Dominance on the Glass?
Young boasts the most size and versatility of any squad he’s ever coached in Blacksburg, and it’s making the Hokies quite the handful on the boards.
Even without an old-school center in the starting unit, Lawal is using his incredible athleticism to sky above the rim and grab rebounds, while Amani Hansberry is making use of his elite positioning and long wingspan to dominate the glass. Together, Lawal and Hansberry are averaging north of 24 rebounds per game - a figure that doesn’t even take into account the 6-foot-9 point guard in Avdalas and the 7-foot, 22-year-old backup center in Antonio Dorn.
Saint Joe’s, meanwhile, doesn’t play a single center more than five minutes a game and only has one starter over 6-foot-6 in Dasear Haskins. This rebound-by-committee method is likely to prove ineffective against the Hokies frontcourt.
How Can the Hawks Contain Neoklis Avdalas?
Well, it’s definitely easier said than done. Avdalas went off for 33 points, six assists and five rebounds on Friday, earning Luka Doncic comparisons all across social media and bursting into the lottery in NBA mock drafts. While it feels lazy to give a tall, European point guard the Doncic comparison, it really is staggering how similar they play in terms of pace and control of the game.
It was very interesting to see how Young’s offense revolved around Avdalas against Providence. After posting a modest 22.4 usage rate in the opener against Charleston Southern, it shot up to 35.2 on Saturday. For reference, Doncic’s usage rate this year leads the NBA at 37.8. Expect Avdalas’ usage rate to fall somewhere between his first two games on Wednesday.
The Hokies implemented a pro-style offense with Avdalas making decisions as the pick and roll ball-handler and the rest of the team spreading the floor. Virginia Tech will continue to lean on Avdalas heavily in the bigger games - specifically once ACC play gets underway. While the Greek phenom won’t always shoot 63% from three point land, he will consistently dominate defenses with his decision making and three-level scoring.
This leaves the Hawks with a difficult choice: (1) throw a guard like Derek Simpson on him and allow Avdalas to use his size to his advantage or(2) match him up with a forward like Finkley and allow the freshman to use his guard-skills against a defender inexperienced at defending lead ball-handlers. Either way, that sounds like a win for Avdalas and the Hokies.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 87, Saint Joseph’s 71
Avdalas may not have the kind of night he had on Saturday, but he will piece the Hawks defense apart with 18 points and 8 dimes. Tech’s frontcourt will once again dominate the glass, but Lawal will get more opportunities on the offensive end as he and Hansberry will both finish with double doubles.
Finkley will find his touch and lead the way with 17 for Saint Joe’s, but it will only be enough to keep the game from becoming a blowout. The Hokies will move to 3-0 and avenge last season’s loss to the Hawks.
