Virginia Tech (12-2, 1-0) looks to retain the momentum from its thrilling triple-overtime win over Virginia, as it faces off against Wake Forest (9-5, 0-1) in Winston-Salem, NC at noon on January 3rd on the ACC Network.
This is only the Hokies second official road game of the season. In their first game as visitors, they knocked off South Carolina, 86-83 in overtime - one of four overtime wins this season.
The Demon Deacons are 7-2 on their home floor of LJVM Coliseum, with lopsided losses to Oklahoma and No. 11 Vanderbilt.
Wake overperformed against No. 2 Michigan and No. 15 Texas Tech, losing by one point in each game, but opened up ACC play with a 70-57 loss at NC State.
Despite its impressive record, Virginia Tech sits at just No. 56 in NET ranking. It has an opportunity to make a significant leap as a road win over Wake Forest (No. 69) would currently qualify as a Quad 1 win. Also, if Virginia knocks off NC State on the road, it would likely jump back into the top 30 and add an additional Quad 1 win to the Hokies resume.
It is important to note that Virginia Tech will once again be without two of its starters in standout power forward Tobi Lawal and wing Tyler Johnson along with backup center Antonio Dorn. Wake Forest's regular rotation is fully intact with freshman depth guard Isaac Carr being the player out for the Deacons.
Wake has won four of its last five matchups against the Hokies, including a 72-63 win in Cassell Coliseum last January. The last time Tech bested the Deacons in Winston-Salem was Jan. 17, 2021 as Tyrece Radford and sophomore Hunter Cattoor combined for 33 to lead the Hokies to a 64-60 win.
The Deacons finished fourth in the ACC a season ago, going 21-11 on the season, but returned less than 28% of last year's production.
Let's take a look at some keys to the game in this early-season ACC clash:
Amani Hansberry’s Efficiency
Hansberry, who had averaged over 17 points per game on nearly 62% shooting over the previous six games went just 5-for-16 from the floor and 3-for-11 from two-point range against Virginia.
He struggled against the size and shot blocking prowess of Virginia’s Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, often settling for fadeaways rather than going up strong.
He matches up much better with Wake Forest’s Tre’Von Spillers, who averages 1.4 blocks per game but stands at just 6-foot-7. If the Demon Deacons can keep Hansberry in check, this could be a tight battle, but I expect Hansberry to return to his dominant ways on the interior playing against a team without the size of UVA.
Turnover Battle
The Hokies and Deacons match up strength on strength. Wake Forest ranks 28th in the country at forcing turnovers at nearly 16 per game. Tech ranks 20th in the country in turnovers per game with below 10.
Wake plays an aggressive style of defense in which five separate players average over one steal per game. It has forced double digit turnovers in every game, including 15 in its loss to NC State on New Year’s Eve.
If there’s any backcourt that can put an end to the double digit turnover streak, it’s the Hokies as both Neoklis Avdalas and Ben Hammond have an assist/turnover ratio greater than 2/1.
With these two teams going strength against strength, something has to give. Whatever team reaches closer to its average in the turnover department is likely to pull off the big win.
Can Juke Harris get back on track?
Wake Forest’s go-to scorer, Harris, is struggling from the field over the last four games. Although he’s averaging over 17 points per game over that stretch, he’s shooting below 30% from the floor and 17% from long range.
For comparison, Harris shot 52% from the field and 41% from deep over the first 10 games.
While Harris has still been able to get to the free throw stripe - a tactic that could greatly benefit the Deacons as they try to get Hansberry into foul trouble - Wake needs Harris to rediscover his early-season confidence.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 79 Wake Forest 73
Although Juke Harris will bounce back with his best performance in nearly a month, the Hokies will escape Winston-Salem with a Quadrant 1 victory behind a 20_ point double double from Hansberry and a return to form from the Hokies' three-point shooters.
