Selection Sunday may be here, but the sweating hasn't stopped for the Virginia Tech Women's Basketball with the Hokies right on the heart of the bubble ahead of tonight's NCAA Tournament Selection Show at 8pm on ESPN.
For weeks, Virginia Tech has been bouncing around the bubble with projections consistently having them among the Last Four In or First Four Out. In year one of the Megan Duffy era, the Hokies did not finish the season in the most inspiring fashion with some disappointing losses at Boston College and home to Stanford, but also a solid win over a NCAA Tournament bound California too.
Today, the Hokies are the storyline on the women's side with everyone if they've done enough to get in over Princeton, the other team that is bouncing the most between Last Four In and First Four Out among bracket projections.
Columbia, Iowa State, and Washington are on the bubble too but seem more likely to be in compared to VT or Princeton. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph's, UNLV, JMU, and Minnesota all seem to be a little too far out though none of them can be completely ruled out.
So with that in mind, here's where the latest projections have the Hokies.
- ESPN: First Team Out
- CBS Sports: First Four Out
- Her Hoop Stats: Last Team In - 11 seed (First Four vs Iowa State in Norman, OK)
- USA Today: First Team Out
As you can see, Virginia Tech is more often projected on the outside of the field rather than the inside, sending them to the new WBIT as the top seed rather than being part of the field of 68. Meanwhile, Princeton is on the other side of the bubble in all four of those cases, whether the Hokies are in or out of the field.
Here's a look at the resumes of Virginia Tech and Princeton, thanks to the team sheets available at WarrenNolan.com.
Virginia Tech
- Record: 18-12
- NET: 46
- Strength of Schedule: 47
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 151
- Last 12: 5-7
- Q1: 1-8
- Q2: 4-2
- Q3: 3-2
- Q4: 10-0
Princeton
- Record: 21-7
- NET: 47
- Strength of Schedule: 86
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 126
- Last 12: 9-3
- Q1: 1-3
- Q2: 3-1
- Q3: 4-3
- Q4: 13-0
The strength of schedule component is going to be a crucial part of the case for Virginia Tech. The Hokies do have three wins over teams who would projected to be above the Last Team In on the S-curve (Georgia Tech, Louisville, California) while Princeton only has a regular season sweep of Harvard. The Last 12 record of 5-7 definitely hurts for the Hokies though Princeton being 9-3 in a weaker Ivy League mitigates that a little. Having the edge in the NET is a boost too but only a minor one.
One thing that will be crucial for VT's case is how much the committee factors in Rose Micheaux's absence for a couple of those losses due to injury. If the committee does factor that in, there's a good chance we see VT in the field tonight. If not, VT will most likely be a top seed for the WBIT.
Here's a look at some of the other resumes starting with Iowa State, Washington, and Columbia; all of whom seem more safely in the field at this point.
Iowa State
- Record: 22-11
- NET: 37
- Strength of Schedule: 37
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 36
- Last 12: 8-4
- Q1: 1-9
- Q2: 2-1
- Q3: 7-1
- Q4: 12-0
Washington
- Record: 19-13
- NET: 43
- Strength of Schedule: 30
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 201
- Last 12: 6-6
- Q1: 3-9
- Q2: 2-3
- Q3: 2-0
- Q4: 12-1
Columbia
- Record: 23-6
- NET: 42
- Strength of Schedule: 85
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 80
- Last 12: 10-2
- Q1: 1-4
- Q2: 3-2
- Q3: 1-0
- Q4: 18-0
Iowa State's stronger metrics and only one Q3 loss compared to three for VT seems to be more than enough for the Cyclones, though VT having five Q1/2 wins closes that gap some. Washington closed the season quite strong to get onto the right side of the bubble and seems to be just a little above the VT/Princeton battle while Columbia had the regular season sweep of Princeton and metric edge that should boost them above the Tigers regardless of what VT does.
Now here's a look at the resumes of the teams on the wrong side of the bubble who are considered a step below the Virginia Tech-Princeton battle.
Minnesota
- Record: 20-11
- NET: 39
- Strength of Schedule: 68
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 357
- Last 12: 3-9
- Q1: 0-8
- Q2: 2-3
- Q3: 3-0
- Q4: 15-0
Saint Joseph's
- Record: 22-9
- NET: 56
- Strength of Schedule: 90
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 202
- Last 12: 7-5
- Q1: 2-2
- Q2: 1-2
- Q3: 2-2
- Q4: 17-3
James Madison
- Record: 28-5
- NET: 55
- Strength of Schedule: 105
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 26
- Last 12: 11-1
- Q1: 0-3
- Q2: 2-0
- Q3: 3-1
- Q4: 23-1
UNLV
- Record: 25-7
- NET: 48
- Strength of Schedule: 132
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 104
- Last 12: 9-3
- Q1: 0-2
- Q2: 0-2
- Q3: 4-3
- Q4: 21-0
Minnesota's case is solely around their NET and the lack of losses in Q3 or 4. Otherwise, the Gophers' case is brutal with zero Q1 wins, an awful non-conference strength of schedule, and a terrible finish to the season. Saint Joseph's metrics and three Q4 losses are enough to keep them out of the field (and make it somewhat surprising that they are getting this much consideration). UNLV's lack of a Q1/2 victory likely is their demise even with a solid NET.
JMU feels like the strongest case of these four and maybe the most likely to surprise the VT/Princeton battle and sneak in. Winning 28 games with a strong strength of schedule especially in non-conference along with their dominance of the Sun Belt should help. However, their weak NET may be too much to overcome especially with that being the only metric rating on the team sheet unlike the men's team sheets.
After over a week of waiting and sweating, Virginia Tech will found out whether they will be part of the field of 68 for the fifth-straight year or not. While the odds aren't great, the Hokies do have a reasonable chance, something that would be a great accomplishment for the first year of the Megan Duffy era.
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