Hoops is back in Cassell Coliseum for the Hokies women’s basketball team to start the new year as Virginia Tech (11-3) takes on Miami (9-4).
The Hokies are coming off a dominant win against nearby Radford to close out their non-conference schedule. They’ve split their two conference games so far with a 16-point loss to Duke and a blowout win against Florida State.
Virginia Tech is led by their returning veterans in Carys Baker, who is averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds, and Carleigh Wenzel, who is averaging 12 points and 3.6 assists per game. The two key transfers of Mel Daley and Kilah Freelon have been a big addition, with Daley averaging 11.6 points and Freelon putting up 9.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per contest so far.
The Hurricanes also enter with an even 1-1 conference record, losing to NC State and winning against Wake Forest by three points. Last season, Miami was one of the bottom dwellers of the ACC with a 14-15 overall record and only four conference wins. Despite the poor season, this season hopes to be different for the ‘Canes.
Miami was projected eighth in the ACC preseason polls, two spots higher than Virginia Tech. They’re led by a top-15 transfer class, with their top four scorers all transfers. They are led by Ra Shaya Kyle, the 6-foot-6 transfer from Florida, who is in her sixth year and is averaging averaging a double-double of 15.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. Two other Hurricanes averaging double-digits are transfer guards Gal Raviv and Amarachi Kimpson from Quinnipiac and UNLV, respectively.
They’ve helped Miami to a 9-4 record at this point, with their four losses coming against ranked Iowa and Kentucky along with Oklahoma State and NC State. Miami has had their fair share of matchups with top teams in the nation and played Iowa and Oklahoma State close, with both of those games being three-point losses.
Here are a few storylines to look into.
Battle on the Glass
It may seem redundant at times, but the battle for boards is critical in any game, but especially this one, with Miami featuring a 6-foot-6 center in Kyle, who is three inches taller than the tallest Hokies, freshmen Aniya Trent and Amani Jenkins, and five inches taller than Freelon, the starting center all year.
Virginia Tech had a negative rebound margin of 20 and 16 against JMU and Duke, respectively, and was even against BYU. Though Virginia Tech averages three more rebounds per game than Miami, the difference in height of the Hurricanes' premier player should not be underestimated.
Naturally, considering the disparity in height, this also affects how the Hokies will defend Ra Shaya Kyle. While in the paint, Virginia Tech may try to put an additional body on her, but they can't allow Kyle to pass out to the perimeter for open shots. Look for head coach Megan Duffy to experiment with having Aniya Trent on Kyle to make up for the height difference and to try to play her one-on-one.
Carys Baker's Hot Streak and a Balanced Offense
Carys Baker has recently rediscovered her rhythm for the Hokies, scoring 20 or more points in five of the last seven games while shooting at or above 50% in all but one of those games. She's also been strong on the boards, grabbing at least seven rebounds in six of the seven games.
Each year in her three-year Hokie career, she’s taken a leap in her role for Virginia Tech. From coming off the bench to starter and now a top-two player on Virginia Tech, Sure, you’d like her to have these performances against Duke and BYU, but the hope is that this momentum swings into ACC play.
While having your star player play at this level consistently is nice, the team as a whole will need to be more consistent in order to have a balanced offense. We know Carleigh Wenzel has the potential to be an integral part of the pair with Baker. In the meantime, you'd like to see everyone be a threat to score on a consistent basis, which has occasionally been an issue for the Hokies.
Strength of Opponents
The Hokies haven’t had this breeze of a schedule so far, taking on Duke, Florida, BYU, and JMU, but it has been nowhere close to as tough as the opponents Miami has faced this far. The Hurricanes have faced two top-10 teams in the NET rankings, and their four losses have all been to teams who are top-30 in NET. Meanwhile, the “best” team the Hokies have played has been Duke, ranked 26th, and the next team is BYU at 45.
The Hokies' schedule hasn't been easy, with games against Duke, Florida, BYU, and JMU, but it hasn't been nearly as difficult as Miami's. The Hurricanes have faced two top-10 teams in the NET rankings, while their four losses have all come against top-30 teams. Meanwhile, Duke, ranked 26th, is the "best" team the Hokies have played, with BYU following at 45.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 68, Miami 62
Virginia Tech hasn't played a game since the 21st, with Miami playing on the 28th, so it'll be intriguing to see how the extra rest affects the Hokies or if there will be any rust going into what will be a physical contest.
I believe Miami's Ra Shaya Kyle will get the majority of what she wants against the Hokies, but it's difficult to see her "taking over" the game entirely given the talent and newfound depth of the front court, especially with the freshman getting opportunities to play the last few games.
For the Hokies’ star player, I think Baker will continue her hot streak and will have her chances to score on the outside.
Even though the game in the paint will receive the most attention, I believe the game ultimately boils down to what the guards can do on both sides of the court. The two guard rotations will have their chances to go back and forth. I believe the Hokies have what it takes to pull off a victory if they can have the flow of Baker and Wenzel with a strong effort from the others.
