Virginia Tech enters the final three games of the season starting with a trip to Chapel Hill to take on the No. 18 North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Hokies are coming off a dominant 82-63 win against Wake Forest at home. That game did boost some metrics, but Saturday’s clash presents an opportunity for a massive boost to VT’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Tar Heels are on a two-game winning streak and recently came off a three-point victory against the No. 24 Louisville Cardinals, a game where North Carolina guard Seth Trimble scored 30 points in the win.
For Virginia Tech’s last win, they got a very promising game from Neoklis Avdalas, who has struggled throughout conference play. In the game against the Demon Deacons, he scored 17 points with four three-pointers along with seven assists. Tobi Lawal also had 17 points in the game with nine rebounds.
For this game, the elephant in the room is that star freshman Caleb Wilson will not be suited up after suffering a hand injury in their game against Miami. That is obviously a boost to VT’s upset hopes.
On the other hand, Virginia Tech got some very good news: Tyler Johnson will return to play after an ankle injury has sat him out for over two months as Mike Young announced during his weekly appearance on Tech Talk Live. This is the first game since December 20th and the first ACC game of the season. Don’t look for Johnson to work right back into the starting lineup, but additional minutes from Johnson should be a big plus in this game.
Here are the things to look for in this game.
Can Neoklis Avdalas Build On His Strong Game Last Week
While it was one game, Avdalas has looked the best since early in conference play. Putting up 17 points is always helpful, but it was one of his more efficient games as of late. He shot 42% from the field and went 4-for-9 (44%) from beyond the arc. Avdalas didn’t look hesitant in his shot selection or decision-making, which helped him play freely, and it showed.
While Avdalas has been far from being the best player for Virginia Tech this season, he's shown in glimpses that his peak is higher than any player on this roster, whether that was against Providence or Wake Forest. If Avdalas can reach his ceiling again, it gives the Hokies a much better chance at pulling off the upset.
At first glance, the Tar Heels don’t have that go-to matchup against Avdalas, with some of their taller guards/forwards that get minutes not being as tall as Avdalas. Then again, North Carolina may seek to do what most teams have in pressuring Avdalas heavily when the ball is in his hands, knowing how much the Greek freshman has struggled when heavily pressured.
Can the Hokies Defend the Paint?
North Carolina enters the game with one of the best centers in the nation in Henri Veesaar, who is currently averaging 16 points and eight rebounds per game. Look for the Tar Heels to feed him in this game early on to take advantage of the height mismatch with Amani Hansberry.
Look for the Hokies to double team him early to limit Veesaar’s presence. This could be a game where Christian Gurdak gets asked to take on a big role to help the Hokies match the size of the Tar Heels and allow for bigger lineups with Hansberry or Tobi Lawal alongside him at the four. Bigger centers like Gurdak and Antonio Dorn will also have to be able to defend Veesaar effectively on the perimeter too, with the Estonian big man shooting 43.1% from three-point range on 2.8 attempts from three per game this season.
Along with Veesaar, UNC has Jarin Stevenson, who shares the frontcourt and is averaging just under eight points per game and will certainly require some conscience effort to contain. He and backup big Jonathan Powell both are versatile forwards who are shooting 29.7% and 36.8% from three and will require strong defense on all levels in this matchup from Hansberry and Lawal.
The Tar Heels also rank second in ACC play in free throw attempts per game with 22.0, so the Hokies will have to play with physicality but also be intentional in trying to avoid foul trouble.
Effective Ball Movement
It is clear to see that the Hokies' best games are when they can generate assists and find great looks on offense. This past game against Wake Forest was a prime example, as Virginia Tech had 19 assists to 31 made field goals. In their best offensive games against Wake Forest, Miami, SMU, South Carolina, and Providence, they got at least 15 assists in those games.
North Carolina also isn't a particularly active defense, averaging only 5.5 steals per game which ranks outside the top 300 in the country. Opponents also only average 9.5 turnovers per game against the Tar Heels, once again ranking well outside the top 300 in the country.
Virginia Tech has had issues with turnovers at times this season but the Tar Heels aren't a team exactly known for forcing a lot of mistakes. However, the Hokies still need to be on their guard, especially against a UNC team that only averages 9.4 turnovers per game themselves and will make this a game of finite margins in that regard.
Prediction: No. 18 North Carolina 81, Virginia Tech 70
Despite the absence of Caleb Wilson, the Tar Heels are still a top-25 team in the nation that can play at a very high level. I expect the Hokies to struggle with Veesaar, as he’ll take up bodies, allowing him to kick it out or get the job done inside. Veesaar will finish with 15+ points, and Seth Trimble will continue to score after his hot game against Louisville.
Neoklis Avdalas will have another impactful game with 15+ points and several assists. It will be either Ben Hammond or Jailen Bedford to complement Avdalas with their scoring ability, but it won't be enough for the Hokies to pick up a road victory.
