At 7 p.m. on Wednesday January 22, 2025, the Virginia Tech Hokies (8-10) fly to snow-covered Atlanta to take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-11), in a matchup the Hokies have historically dominated, winning 23 of their 32 all-time matchups. Despite sitting at below .500, the Hokies have actually picked up some steam as of late, winning three of their last five in ACC play. Three conference wins already surpasses many people’s expectations for their entire slate after the dreadful non-conference results, and it appears Mike Young has turned Virginia Tech into a respectable ACC team.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is suffering through a four game losing streak and currently sits at third-to-last in the ACC standings. The Yellow Jackets have been solid on their home floor, picking up all eight victories in McCamish Pavilion. For this reason, Georgia Tech opens up as 5.5 point favorites to knock off the Hokies and pick up their second win in 2025.
Here are some key points that could decide the outcome of the game:
Who Will Put Together Two Good Halves of Basketball?
Both teams have shown flashes of solid basketball, but have been largely unable to put together 40 minutes of basketball. Against Florida State, Georgia Tech dropped 54 in the second half, but it wasn’t enough due to the dreadful 37-24 deficit they faced at halftime. In an even more extreme example, two games ago the Yellow Jackets found themselves trailing 50-19 at the half to SMU, before dropping 52 in the second half. In their four-game losing streak, Georgia Tech has scored 25 points or less in every first half. To beat the Hokies, they need to put at least 30 points on the board by halftime.
The Hokies struggles don’t come as consistently in the first half. However, they do struggle to put two halves together.
On January 11, Virginia Tech led by as much as 23 early in the second half against California, before the Golden Bears stormed back and lost by just three points. Four days later, the Hokies didn’t show up in the first half against NC State, but managed to recover from a 15-point deficit and pull out a 79-76 win.
Comebacks like this are encouraging. However, Mike Young would much prefer his team to come out hot and keep their foot on the gas on their way to a comfortable, double digit win; something the team hasn’t experienced since their 95-67 beatdown of North Carolina A&T over a month ago.
Foul Trouble
The Yellow Jackets were missing three key rotation pieces in their loss to Florida State on January 19th: Kowacie Reeves Jr., Luke O’Brien, and Jaeden Mustaf. Due to the injuries head coach Damon Stoudamire only played six players all game. His rotation was further complicated as three of his six rotation players registered at least four fouls, including Baye Ndongo who fouled out in just 26 minutes.
Georgia Tech has yet to reveal their injury report for tonight’s game, but they will likely be undermanned, making it a golden opportunity for the Hokies to attack the basket and look to draw fouls. With speedy point guard Ben Hammond back in the lineup as well as two strong inside presences in Tobi Lawal and Mylyjael Poteat, the Hokies have the personnel to take advantage of the Yellow Jackets lack of depth.
Moving the Ball
Despite possessing an average-at-best offense, Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in assists per game, throwing 15.5 dimes per game and assisting on over half of their baskets. This ball movement attack is spearheaded by sophomore point guard Naithan George, whose 6.2 assists per game is good for third in the conference. The Yellow Jackets surround George with a guard heavy lineup, contributing to their impressive ball skills and high assist numbers.
Sometimes, high assist numbers also lead to high turnover numbers, but fortunately for Georgia Tech, the Hokies aren’t good at turning their opponents over. In fact, Virginia Tech ranks last in the conference in turnover margin at -2.5 per game. The Hokies are prone to sloppy play, so Georgia Tech has a chance to win if they can top Virginia Tech in both the assist and turnover departments.
Matchup of the Game: Tobi Lawal vs Baye Ndongo
As previously mentioned, Ndongo has as much responsibility as ever, due to the injuries the Yellow Jackets have suffered in recent weeks. Tonight, he’ll likely spend some time matched up with both Poteat and the uber-athletic Tobi Lawal. Lawal is coming off of back to back double-doubles including a 22-point and 11-rebound performance against NC State. While Lawal's offensive aggressiveness comes and goes, this is seemingly the perfect matchup for him to use his athleticism to force his way to the rim and get to the stripe. Ndongo has to play without fouling as he is averaging an impressive 12 points and 7 rebounds per game on the season, but consistently finds himself in foul trouble.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 77, Georgia Tech 71
While Virginia Tech has severely struggled to win road games over the past couple of years, they have recently flipped a switch where they can at least beat the bottom-feeders of the ACC; a place where Georgia Tech currently sits in the conference standings. While it won’t be pretty, Virginia Tech leading scorer Tobi Lawal will have his fourth 20+ point game of the season and will record his third consecutive double-double, leading the Hokies to a win and getting them to .500 in ACC play.
