The Virginia Tech Hokies (5-7) return to the court for their first game in 10 days for their ACC road opener against the fourth ranked Duke Blue Devils (10-2) in a New Year’s Eve clash on ACC Network.
After a three-game stretch in which the Hokies seemed to be finding their footing, Virginia Tech returned to their old ways, getting routed 82-62 by Saint Joseph’s in the Holiday Hoopfest in Philadelphia. Mike Young’s squad didn’t have too much trouble generating open looks, but they couldn’t seem to knock any of those shots down. The Hokies went 7/22 from long range with only first time starter Ben Hammond and Ben Burnham reaching double figures.
Duke, on the other hand, is on a roll. After a couple down-to-the-wire losses against Kentucky and Kansas, the Blue Devils have rattled off six straight wins, including an impressive 84-78 victory over No. 2 Auburn, who besides that loss have looked like the best team in the country.
Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg is garnering all the attention, and rightfully so, but what is most impressive about this Duke team is their defense. No matter the talent, it is hard to turn a young team into a defensive powerhouse. This became clear in the latter years of Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s tenure who, as a former defensive mastermind, settled for average defenses in much of his later years. In fact, in his final 13 years as Duke’s head coach, the Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish 2018-19 team is his only squad that ended the season with a better defensive rating than offensive rating.
This trend has flipped during the Jon Scheyer tenure. In his first two seasons, Duke has had a stronger defense than offense. The defense has reached another level so far this season as the Blue Devils have a defensive rating of 87.0, good for sixth in the country.
Duke is playing very high level basketball while Virginia Tech looks like one of the worst teams in the power conferences. Unless Mike Young has been able to turn this team around in a span of 10 days, this game could get ugly very quickly. With that being said, here’s some keys to the game:
Take Care of the Ball
The Hokies turn the ball over more than all but 32 teams nationwide, coughing it up 14.5 times per game. While new starting point guard Ben Hammond has done a better job taking care of the ball than Brandon Rechsteiner, Virginia Tech still lacks experienced point guard play and has therefore struggled against pressure and athleticism.
The Blue Devils are likely the most athletic team the Hokies have on their schedule, and the Cameron Indoor crowd will feed off of any turnovers leading to fastbreak highlight slams, creating an environment almost impossible to win in. As a team that has struggled to hit shots, the Hokies have to limit their turnovers to give themselves as many chances as possible and to keep the Cameron Crazies at bay.
Duke’s Three-Point Shooting
The Blue Devils have been a fairly average three-point shooting team percentage wise, but they are among the nation’s best in both makes and attempts. Duke has three players in particular who can really light it up from long range: Isaiah Evans, Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel.
Evans is their only player who is purely a three-point sniper, with over 90% of his shots coming from downtown. In just 14 minutes per game, Evans is fourth on the team in scoring, mostly due to knocking down threes at a 51% clip. Proctor isn’t one-dimensional like Evans, but he has still increased both his three point volume and efficiency from his first two collegiate seasons.
Similarly, Knueppel is a player who can beat you in multiple ways, but the 14th ranked freshman in the class of 2024 was so highly-touted because of his sweet stroke. Knueppel is actually struggling with his long range efficiency, knocking down just over 34% of his looks. However, based on both his reputation as a shooter and his 95% free throw shooting percentage, Knueppel seems bound to see his three point efficiency rise. If he gets it going against Virginia Tech, the game could really get out of hand.
Matchup of the Game: Cooper Flagg vs Tobi Lawal
While the Hokies defense as a whole leaves a lot to be desired, they do have one all-world athletic talent that at least theoretically can do as good a job on Cooper Flagg as anyone. That is the man with a 49.5 inch vertical, Tobi Lawal.
Lawal is very raw as a basketball player, but is a tantalizing talent due to his rare combination of length and athleticism. This prototype is, in theory, the perfect player to defend Flagg, one on one. While both Flagg and Lawal are their team's leading scorers, this matchup is particularly exciting because their physical and athletic traits are so similar.
Prediction: No. 4 Duke 85, Virginia Tech 57
After a commanding 82-56 win over Georgia Tech, it seems as if Duke’s best competition is already behind them and they are ready to roll through the struggling ACC for the next couple months. Virginia Tech on the other hand, eased no concerns with their 20-point loss to the Saint Joseph’s Hawks. If the Hokies can’t even keep a game close with the Hawks on a neutral site, who knows how bad it could get against the Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor.
The freshmen will star tonight for Duke as Flagg will finish with another double-double, while Knueppel will find his shot and score 20+ points for the first time since the season opener. Duke runs away with this one 85-57.
