Virginia Tech may already be 1-0 in ACC play thanks to an early December win over Louisville, but conference action truly kicks off this weekend with the Hokies travelling to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest. You can also check out a couple of our features leading up to this weekend's game at the links below.
- What We Learned About Virginia Tech In Non-Conference Play
- Brandon Rechsteiner Benefitting From Recent Starting Experience
With that said, here are my three things to watch for the Hokies against the Demon Deacons plus my prediction.
1. How Does Virginia Tech's Defense Hold Up vs Wake Forest Offense?
Virginia Tech may not be a defensive machine, but they've shown legitimate improvement on the defensive end of the floor and currently rank higher in defensive efficiency than offensive efficiency (53 vs 62) according to KenPom.
The Hokies have faced some solid tests during non-conference play on the defensive end with mixed results. However, Wake Forest will be their toughest test in weeks ranking 32nd in offensive efficiency according to KenPom with only Florida Atlantic and Auburn ranking higher among teams Tech has faced this season.
Tech's perimeter defense is going to be tested in particular in this matchup as five of Wake Forest's top six scorers shoot over 36% from three-point range with each averaging at least 2.7 three-point attempts per game.
The Demon Deacons may be a little three-point shooting heavy relative to the national average, but they also may be starting to show more balance, especially with a true quality starting center in Efton Reid who just became eligible earlier this month. That was due to the court ruling that for now has prevented the NCAA from enforcing their one-time free transfer rule, allowing the second time transfer Reid to play. Reid hasn't played well in terms of his shooting so far, but he's getting to the free-throw line consistently to balance out those struggles.
All four of Wake Forest's leading scorers are also shooting 55% from inside the arc and have some fairly even splits between two-point and three-point attempts. Tech is not going to be able to cheat in either direction in this one in what will be the toughest test that the Hokies have faced defensively in weeks.
If Tech can slow down the loaded Wake Forest offensive attack, then there will be plenty of reason to believe that the Hokies' improved defense is here to stay at this high level throughout ACC play.
2. Battle of the Hunters
Maybe the most important matchup in this game will come on the wing between Hunter Cattoor and Hunter Sallis. While it's also possible that Cattoor is heavily guarding Cameron Hildreth (and Tech will need MJ Collins/Tyler Nickel to step up there), Cattoor should draw the Gonzaga transfer who is looking like the former five-star recruit that he was coming out of high school
Despite currently shooting under 40% for the first time in his career, the numbers suggest that Hunter Cattoor is having the best offensive season of his career. Two main reasons for that are the fact that he's shooting a career-best 57.1% from inside the arc and is not averaging 4.1 free-throw attempts per game (more than double his previous career-best), he's also shooting a career-best 89.8% from the free-throw line.
Now Cattoor is facing a Wake Forest team that doesn't give up a lot of fouls with Sallis only averaging 1.8 per game and fellow standout wing Cameron Hildreth averaging only 2.1 fouls per game. However, Cattoor has definitely upped his game in regards to getting to the rim and drawing fouls to get to the free-throw line. This game will provide a great test of those abilities, but don't be surprised if Cattoor finds a multitude of ways to make an offensive impact in this one.
Defensively, Cattoor has sharpened things up after his elbow injury that caused him to miss time seemed to throw him off on that end of the floor once he made his return. His defensive rating is the best that its been since the 2020-21 season while his defensive plus/minus of 2.2 is a big improvement from his career-low of 1.0 last season.
Sallis is a big time talent who can score on multiple levels and will certainly test Cattoor. He also has a good balance of outside and inside shooting that will prevent Cattoor from being able to cheat in either direction. If Cattoor can slow down Sallis (should he be matched up him) or Cameron Hildreth, it'll greatly help the Hokies' chances of slowing down Wake Forest's strong offensive attack.
3. Will the Supporting Cast Step Up?
It's often been the big three of Hunter Cattoor, Lynn Kidd, and Sean Pedulla driving the ship for Virginia Tech this season. While the Hokies have gotten some good play out of their supporting cast in non-scoring ways, there's also been some inconsistency at times that has hurt the Hokies.
If Tech is going to reach their peak level of success, they are going to need their supporting cast to fill their roles well.
Two guys who Tech will especially need in this matchup are Mekhi Long and Robbie Beran who will face a tough assignment against Wake Forest's stretch four Andrew Carr. The 6'9'' power forward has stepped his game up for Wake Forest this season averaging a career-high 15.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting a career-high 40.0% from three-point range and 55.7% from the field as a whole.
He also leads the Demon Deacons in player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage among their main rotation and is averaging 2.7 offensive rebounds per game. Long and Beran are quality rebounders and defensive players as a whole, and will need to be sharp in this one.
MJ Collins and Tyler Nickel will likely also draw some tough defensive matchups in this game against either Cameron Hildreth or Hunter Sallis depending on what direction Mike Young goes with. Both are averaging over 15 points per game and have true shooting percentages of greater than 59%. Collins has been the more advanced defensive player this season and it wouldn't be surprising to see Mike Young lean more heavily on Collins if Collins is having even just a solid day offensively.
Tech will need both of those guys and others like Beran and Jaydon Young to be sharpshooters as well to help stretch things out offensively for the Hokies. Wake Forest isn't a great defensive team, but the Hokies are shooting under 34% from three-point range. The Hokies are showing signs that they may not be a live by the three, die by the three team but they are going to need to create some space for Lynn Kidd and the supporting cast will have to play a role rather than just lean on Cattoor and Pedulla to achieve that.
Prediction
It's rare over the years that Virginia Tech is the clearly more battle-tested team early in ACC play like this, but that's the reality with the Hokies ranking in the top 150 in non-conference strength of schedule per KenPom while Wake Forest ranks outside the top 275. The Demon Deacons do have a pair of quality victories over Florida and Rutgers that may not be as strong as Tech's wins over Iowa State, Boise State, and Vermont but aren't too far off of it.
These games after Christmas can be weird, especially since practice time usually gets choppy around the holidays and teams may honestly be not as sharp given the extended gap between games. That could be favorable in some ways for Wake Forest playing at home, and in other ways for a Virginia Tech team that isn't as reliant on their three-point shooting.
All this to say that this game feels like a toss up which could have significance a couple months from now with both teams hanging around either side of the bubble at the moment. Wake Forest has a strong starting lineup
The x-factor for the Demon Deacons may be Efton Reid who hasn't been great offensively, but has been a force on the glass and as a shot blocker. Reid isn't as good as Lynn Kidd, but his rebounding and defense may allow him to slow Kidd down enough in this matchup.
I also have some concerns about the form of Sean Pedulla which hadn't looked great for most of this month prior to picking up an injury at the end of the victory against Louisville. If Pedulla isn't sharp in this game, this could be a difficult afternoon for the Hokies.
In the end, I think the concerns about Pedulla versus Wake Forest being at home and having four guys who are averaging 15+ points per game and can be trusted to score will make the difference. I expect Cattoor and Kidd to play well, but I'm not sure this is a good "get right" spot for Pedulla and I'm not convinced Tech's supporting cast can step up in this spot on the road in the ACC.
