Virginia Tech is off to their first 9-1 start or better since the 2018-19 season picking up four-straight wins over the past couple weeks against Charleston Southern, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Dayton. However, only the UNC win looks like it'll be a Q1 or Q2 win at the moment joining their current Q2 win over Penn State.
That makes this a big opportunity for the Hokies against a good Oklahoma State team that will also be hungry to boost their non-conference resume. The Cowboys are just outside the top 50 in the NET currently that would make this a Q1 game for the Hokies but the Cowboys play in arguably the best conference in America in Big 12 where quality wins that can boost their NET rating are plentiful.
They are currently lacking a surefire Q1 or Q2 non-conference win though Sam Houston who is currently in the top 30 of the NET giving them a Q1 win. That one seems unlikely to stay in Q1 but could be in Q2. However, a win over the Hokies would be the signature non-conference win that they are looking for to boost their resume.
Of course, there likely will be some extra emotions for the Hokies given that this game is in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn where the Hokies won their first ever ACC Tournament title this past spring. Mike Young even mentioned that there was some extra excitement to get back up to Brooklyn where Tech had one of their greatest triumphs in program history.
So let's dive into the preview for this game and my pick.
Players to Watch: Sean Pedulla
Many probably aren't surprised to probably see Sean Pedulla here, but the Hokies' point guard has been playing at an All-ACC level all season, and now gets the chance to take on one of the two in-state power conference programs that overlooked him for the first time in his career.
You have to think that fact may also give Pedulla an extra chip on his shoulder for this one.
Pedulla will also be important against a very good Oklahoma State defense that has held their opponents to the eighth lowest field goal shooting percentage in America. The Cowboys will likely have their veteran guard Avery Anderson guarding Pedulla and understandably so given that he's one of the best defensive guards in the Big 12 and that he's been averaging 2 steals per game.
Meanwhile, Pedulla has been excellent running the show averaging 3.8 assists to only 1.4 turnovers so far this season while putting up 17 points per game shooting 50.4% from the field including 59.8% from inside the arc and 35.3% from three-point range. While Tech has found plenty of varying ways to win, Pedulla has usually been a key part in some sort of way.
The Cowboys will know that they'll have a much better shot of winning if they can contain Pedulla while Pedulla both knows how valuable he is and probably senses an opportunity to show one of the two biggest schools in his home state why they should've offered him.
Key Matchup: Justyn Mutts vs Moussa Cisse
Justyn Mutts has been phenomenal so far this season for the Hokies averaging 13.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting an impressive 62% from the field including 64.8% from inside the arc. Mutts has dominated down low not only making great passes out of the paint but attacking the rim and scoring off posting up at a level that we haven't seen from Mutts prior to this season.
However, Mutts may face his toughest test of the season to date in the post against Oklahoma State center Moussa Cisse.
Cisse has been impressive so far this season around the rim averaging 10.8 rebounds including 3.4 offensive rebounds plus 3.3 blocks in only 25.6 minutes per game. His defensive win shares of 0.9 so far this season rates at the top of the Big 12 per Sports Reference as his defensive dominance has been quite impressive to date this season.
Tech has shown that they can beat quality opponents when Mutts is either not having his best night or is being limited by his opponent as we saw earlier this past week against Dayton. However, containing Mutts will always provide a boost for a VT opponent and if Cisse fails to do so, it may limit Oklahoma State's ability to win this one.
This should be a really fun matchup in the paint between Mutts and Cisse that could prove crucial in the outcome of this game.
Keys to the Game
1. Protect the Basketball
One of the biggest strengths of this Virginia Tech team is the fact that they protect the basketball at an extremely high level. Currently, the Hokies average the fewest turnovers in the country at 8.6 and though they don't force a lot of turnovers, they consistently force more turnovers than they have themselves.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State ranks in the top 35 in the country in steals per game with 8.3 while also holding teams to 36.1% field goal shooting. That combination means that possessions are going to be at a premium in this game even for an efficient Tech offense making it important that the Hokies protect the basketball at a high level.
Tech has done well at winning the points off turnovers battle even with their low number of forced turnovers because of their even lower numbers of turnovers allowed. Additionally, Tech has done fairly well at avoiding the type of live ball turnovers that Oklahoma State has done well at and will look to try to minimize the shooting efficiency advantage that Tech has.
Protecting the basketball is always important, but the Hokies will need to be on their game against an Oklahoma State team that has had a knack for forcing them.
2. Can Hokies Find Their Peak Three-Point Shooting Form?
Virginia Tech has shown that they can win against quality competition without shooting 40% or better from three-point range as we've seen from several recent wins including Penn State and North Carolina.
Tech can absolutely beat an Oklahoma State team that is shooting under 31% from three-point range if they don't have their best stuff from three in this game. However, Oklahoma State has the best rim protection Tech has faced to date this season from Moussa Cisse and others averaging 5.4 blocks per game ranking 20th in the country.
Darius Maddox has found ways to make winning plays despite being in a slump from three-point range to start the season at 26.7%. Meanwhile, Sean Pedulla has seen his volume and quality of three-point attempts as the offensive initiator decrease some leading to a decrease to shooting 35.3% from three-point range. If one or both of those guys can find the form that had them shooting over 40% from three in this game, Tech has a chance for a dominant performance.
Hunter Cattoor and Grant Basile have both been in form from three-point range though with Basile shooting 42.9% from deep and Cattoor shooting 41.5%.
Of Tech's starting 5, all but Maddox are shooting better than Oklahoma State's three-point shooting average of 30.9%. Caleb Asberry is the only healthy regular shooting above 33% from three-point range at 36.8% from deep while leading scorers Avery Anderson and Bryce Thompson are both under 33% from three with Anderson under 20% significantly off his career average.
If Tech can find their top form from three-point range, they may have a chance to put together a statement type victory but even if not, a solid shooting day from behind the arc would put them in strong position to win this one.
3. Handling The Extra Emotions of Brooklyn Return Well
Mike Young was honest that there is an extra excitement about this game being played in Brooklyn's Barclays Center where the Hokies won the 2022 ACC Tournament this past spring.
That excitement is completely understandable and can definitely provide some extra fuel for the Hokies in this game. It can always creative a reflective distraction from the game as well if the Hokies aren't careful or juice up the emotions a little too much relative to the task at hand.
Of course, having those extra emotions may be a positive especially since this time, the Barclays Center will not be anywhere close to full like it was this past March. These neutral site games can have some weird environments given the limited crowds due to the long travelling not during a holiday week.
So can the Hokies handle their extra excitement well to fuel their performance or will it be a distraction? It could prove important in this game with the honest approach from Young and company one that should help give them time to embrace the emotions and mentally prepare to handle them well.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 74, Oklahoma State 67
At the end of the day, Virginia Tech is the better and more efficient team while they also protect the basketball a lot better than Oklahoma State does. Those things matter and though the Cowboys likely can win the rebounding battle and could end up with more shots than VT does, the Hokies know how to get high quality shots.
Sean Pedulla feels poised for a big game against a power conference program from his home state that overlooked him. The veteran nature of this team should also help them lock in more in their return to the arena where they won the 2022 ACC Tournament though they can't let themselves get too caught up in the emotion of this return either.
Tech also has been quite good in the paint this season and though the Cowboys have some stern rim protection with center Moussa Cisse, Mike Young knows how to create effective matchups that both Justyn Mutts and Grant Basile can take advantage of down low.
The Cowboys should provide a good test, but the Hokies will get the job in what should be an entertaining game in Brooklyn.
