After a big win against North Carolina, the quality of competition does not drop off for Virginia Tech as Dayton comes to Blacksburg.
The young Flyers are off to a rocky start this season. Many had the Flyers as the favorites to win the A-10 and be a mainstay in the Top 25. That has not been the case, as they currently sit at 5-4 with all of their losses on the year coming on the road or at a neutral site. They have had some tough losses this year, losing by 4 to BYU in OT after blowing a 23-point lead and then by 1 in a barn burner to Wisconsin.
For those that pay attention to the evaluation tool the NCAA uses for the tournament which came out prior to the 18-19 season, the Flyers find themselves ranked the lowest (161st) they have ever been in the first ranking release (Dayton Daily News- David Jablonski). The Hokies on the other hand, are 43rd in those rankings with an 8-1 record on the season. They are coming off their first conference win of the year, which was an 80-72 victory over the struggling but talented North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Hokies are 8-7 against the Flyers all-time. Virginia Tech has lost the last two games against Dayton. Last year’s matchup was a 62-57 defeat on the road in Dayton.
What to Watch For:
The Flyers have four players averaging double figures in points on the year. They are led by their two big men, 6’ 10” sophomore forward DaRon Holmes II (15.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg) who is their leading scorer, and 6’ 8” junior forward Toumani Camara from Belgium.
Camara and Holmes II are some big guys for Dayton in the middle who run the floor well and go to backing down their man in the post. They are also used as rim-running bigs in a lot of pick and roll action with the Flyers’ playmakers. Freshman 6’ 8” forward Mike Sharavjamts has stepped into a more substantial role as their primary ball-handler since sophomore guard Kobe Elvis and Malachai Smith went down to injury in the Flyers' OT loss to BYU. He has had 8 assists in each of the last two games since taking on a starting role.
Sharavjamts represents the type of length this Flyers team has in their lineup. Forwards RJ Blakney is 6’ 6” and Mustapha Amzil of Finland is 6’ 9.”
For the Hokies, they seem to be starting to gel a bit as a team. The win against UNC was their third straight since losing to the College of Charleston in the Charleston Classic final. Forward Justyn Mutts is coming off his best performance of the season against UNC when he had 27 points and grabbed 11 boards. Guards Sean Pedulla and Cattoor have been great of late, but guard Darius Maddox has struggled in the Hokies’ last three games going 7 for 26 (26.9%) from the field.
Pedulla, Mutts, Cattoor, and graduate transfer Grant Basile (13.9 ppg) are all averaging double figures in points so far this season. This Mike Young offense will utilize a lot of dribble hand-offs and screens to get their shooters open while working an inside-out game with their best player in Mutts to find the open man cutting, on the wings, or in the corner for an open shot.
Impact Players:
Dayton: Forward DaRon Holmes II (15.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.0 blks)
The sophomore forward from Goodyear, Arizona is a load to handle in the post. He is very long and athletic. He is hitting 55.7% of his shots from three.
Holmes II does have a face up game, but seems to do his best work down on the block, going to his post game with a variety of moves. Last game against SE Louisiana, he had one of his best games of the season, going for 19 points and 12 rebounds.
Virginia Tech: Forward Justyn Mutts (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.4 stls, and 0.9 blks)
The grad student from Millville, NJ, is coming off his best game of the season with an all-around effort against UNC where he filled the stat sheet (27 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists). He is shooting the ball slightly better this year from three (37.5% from 33.3% last season), but his game is best served inside. His strength helps him back his opponent down underneath the basket, and he will go to his right hand for a hook shoot often where his athletic ability helps him elevate it over taller defenders that may be guarding him.
Three Keys to the Game:
1. Aggressive Play On Offense
The Hokies looked strong against UNC, and a big reason why was their aggressive strategy in attacking the rim. Mutts scored much of his 27 off the dribble, and Cattoor needs to continue to be aggressive in getting to the rim because it opens up his three-point shooting and keeps defenders honest.
This mindset and attacking on offense can and will play well against Dayton too. Camara and Holmes II are both athletic and their length could cause problems. However, one thing that’s noticeable (especially in the Wisconsin game) is they still get backed down in the post by opposing big men. Look for Basile and Mutts to test their post game out early.
2. Win the Three-Point Battle
The Hokies attempt a little over 22 (22.3) three point shots a game. They are not amazing from three, hitting 35.82% (72-201) of their shots from beyond the arc, but the Flyers are significantly worse at 27.57% (51-185). At times this season, the Hokies three-point shooting has been one of their best ways to extend their lead, or it has been one of the ways they have lost it.
Dayton ranks 55th in opponent 3-pt FG% allowed (28.4%), yet at times on defense, they can get caught ball watching. Also, the Hokies should be able to use their off-ball screens to get our shooters some good looks at spotting up for three.
The Hokies' usual suspects from three will need to be on in Cattoor (44.7% from 3) and Basile (42.6%) who could cause trouble for Camara or Holmes II. Those 2 could open things up for guards like Sean Pedulla and Darius Maddox to attack the paint and for Mutts in the post.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Hokie fans, you all might see this key appear often in game previews, because it is one of the team’s greatest strengths. They are now 9 games into the season and are averaging 9.0 turnovers a game, which is good for second in the nation.
When you take care of the ball you are going to have a better chance at winning games, or at the very least staying in them to state the obvious.
While the Hokies do not turn the ball over often, the Flyers do averaging 14.2 turnovers per game (255th in the nation). The defense will have to cause some problems for this young Flyers team. This could mean doubling down on Camara and Holmes II in the post and challenging the Flyers’ guards to beat Pedulla, Maddox, and Cattoor one-on-one.
Vegas Odds
Spread: VT -7.5
Over/Under: 127.5
Pick: Virginia Tech 71, Dayton 63
The Hokies may have lost to the Flyers for two straight years, but last year’s game was in Ohio and the one before that was in Maui against Obi Toppin. This year, the Flyers must come play the Hokies in Cassell where Dayton is 0-5.
I like the Hokies chances to continue building momentum from their win against UNC. Look for the Hokies to feed off the home crowd and take advantage of the Flyers' turnovers by aggressively attacking the post and knocking down the open shots they will have when given the opportunity from a well-timed ball screen or a lapse in the defense.
