The Virginia Tech Hokies (3-2) face off against the Michigan Wolverines (4-1) for the tournament portion of the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Suncoast Credit Union Arena at 6 p.m. on November 25, 2024. Both teams have already hosted on-campus Fort Myers Tip-Off matchups, with Michigan blowing out Miami (OH) and Tarleton State, while Virginia Tech suffered one of its worst losses in years at the hands of Jacksonville.
While the Wolverines have had a better start to the season than the Hokies, they are coming off their worst season in over 40 years, going just 8-24 overall, and 3-17 in conference play. Michigan turned the page, moving on from former Wolverines standout Juwan Howard, who failed to lead his team to the NCAA tournament for two consecutive seasons at the end of his tenure. In his place, Michigan hired former Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May, who led the Owls to the 2024 Final Four and has transformed this Wolverines defense. Michigan is currently the 17th ranked defensive rating in the country.
Besides the change on the sidelines, this is a completely new Michigan team, with only one returner among the eight players who get at least 13 minutes of action a night. The Wolverines somehow took the Hokies’ overhaul to an extreme, with virtually no returners across the entire roster.
Based on their strong start to the season and the Hokies’ early struggles, Michigan opened as 10.5 point favorites. Here are some keys to the game that will decide who comes out on top:
Keys to the Game
Depth Production
As previously mentioned, these are two teams that rely heavily on depth, with so few returning faces on either roster. Neither team has any player who averages 14 points per game, with Michigan's leading scorer, Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, checking in at 13.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Hokies are led by their frontcourt of Mylyjael Poteat and VCU transfer Tobi Lawal, who each average about 13 a night
For Virginia Tech specifically, they lack a number one scoring option due to the loss of their highly touted transfer Hysier Miller before the season even started
On one hand, this has led to four different players leading the team in scoring through five games. On the other hand, this makes Mike Young lean on secondary scoring options as if they are go-to guys. This will work if everyone gets hot, but it requires great play all around from their depth to make up for a lack of star power.
Turnovers
Virginia Tech and Michigan are two teams that have heavily struggled with turnovers. The Hokies are 36th in the country in turnovers per game (15.2) after two straight games of struggling to beat full court pressure. It will be interesting to see if Michigan mirrors what worked so well for Penn State and Jacksonville and applies full court pressure and frequent traps.
The Wolverines, in their own right, are actually slightly more turnover prone than the Hokies, coughing it up 16th most in the country (16.4). Michigan has been able to get away with this because they have shot so well (53% from the field, 39% from three-point range). Virginia Tech, on the other hand, can’t afford to give the ball away as they shoot just 43% from the floor, and below 32% from long range.
The Hokies absolutely have to win the turnover battle to have any chance of pulling off this minor upset.
Matchup of the Game: Nimari Burnett vs Jaden Schutt
While other players might jump off the page as higher scorers, these are two players who can single handedly change a game if their shots start falling.
Burnett, the lone rotation returner from a year ago, is knocking down more than two three-pointers a game with a 50% success rate. This includes a 16-point performance against TCU, followed up by 18 against Miami (OH). This is a different Michigan team when he is hitting shots, just as Virginia Tech is a different team when Schutt hits shots.
The Duke transfer is knocking down about 38% of his three-point looks this season, and has unsurprisingly struggled in the Hokies’ two losses, going 3/12 from long range over their last two outings. Schutt, who was the only consistent scorer in the Hokies' close win against Winthrop with 17 points on 5/10 from three-point range, is the key to unlocking an otherwise outmatched Tech offense.
Prediction: Michigan 78, Virginia Tech 65
Michigan will see the film of the Hokies’ struggles against pressure and will play aggressive defense. The Wolverines will get enough easy baskets in transition to make up for the lack of a dominant offensive force, and their defense will provide more resistance than Mike Young’s struggling unit. Mylyjael Poteat will lead the Hokies’ with 16+ points, but it won’t be enough as Burnett will score 14+ points on at least a few threes, to lead Michigan to another win, and push Virginia Tech to just a .500 win percentage only six games into this season.
