The ACC Men’s Basketball tournament is officially underway in the Spectrum Center here in Charlotte, North Carolina. The first night of action closes with a battle between No. 12 Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10) and No. 13 Wake Forest (16-15, 7-11) at 7 p.m. on ACC Network - these teams third matchup of the season.
The Demon Deacons claimed the first contest 81-78 on January 3 in Winston-Salem, thanks to a Nate Calmese step-back triple with under seven seconds to go. The Hokies rebounded with a dominant 82-63 victory back in Blacksburg on February 21, headlined by Neoklis Avdalas’ return to form after a near month-long slump.
The stakes couldn’t be much higher. Virginia Tech realistically needs two ACC tournament wins to give itself a shot at claiming one of the last four spots come Selection Sunday. Wake, meanwhile, has no choice but to shock the world and win the ACC to clinch a tournament berth. If nothing else, the Deacons have the opportunity to play spoiler to the Hokies - Joe Lunardi’s third team out as things currently stand.
Wake Forest hasn’t won an ACC tournament game since a 72-59 second round victory over Notre Dame in 2024. Virginia Tech’s last tournament win also came against the Irish - a 67-64 first round victory in 2023.
Let's take a look at some keys to the game, that will decide which team takes the season series and ultimately prolongs its season.
Health of respective stars
Virginia Tech’s Amani Hansberry is listed as “probable” after suffering a leg injury down the stretch against Virginia, while Wake Forest’s Calmese has been upgraded to “questionable” as he navigates an ankle injury.
The impact of these respective players can’t be overstated. Hansberry is the Hokies best player, averaging 14 points and seven rebounds, and is arguably their most impactful player - especially against the Deacon’s who lack the size to contain him on the interior. While Hansberry has been unable to stay out of foul trouble against Wake this season, he still managed a combined 32 points and 13 rebounds in those two games despite his limited minutes.
Calmese only appeared in the first matchup, but he made his presence known. Beyond hitting the aforementioned game-winning trey, Calmese dropped 25 points - his second highest scoring total of the year - to go along with seven assists. Calmese is just one of a plethora of guards whom the Hokies have struggled to contain this season.
Even if Calmese suits up, the chance of him playing near the level of the first matchup is slim to none, considering he hasn’t played for over two weeks and was initially expected to miss the rest of the season.
Whichever team is fortunate enough to have its star player available - and near full strength - receives a massive boost at rolling into the second round.
Wake Forest’s pick-and-roll coverage
The first time these teams matched up, Wake Forest’s aggressive pick-and-roll coverage smothered the Hokies and that proved too much to overcome. Avdalas turned it over seven times - almost all in the first half - and Hansberry nearly kept pace with six giveaways. The Demon Deacons blitzed the pick-and-roll ball handler with deep hedges or traps to force it out of Avdalas' hands, while the rest of the team played passing lanes with their active hands.
Steve Forbes' team was much more subdued defensively in the second matchup, allowing the freshman point guard to get to his spots and carve up Wake’s defense. Perhaps, Forbes made that decision anticipating Avdalas to be more prepared for that defense the second go-around. Regardless, expect the Deacons to go back to what worked so effectively the first time.
Matchup of the Game: Juke Harris vs Jailen Bedford
Harris, the ACC’s second leading scorer at nearly 23 points per game in conference play, has been relatively quiet in his two appearances against the Hokies this year scoring 15 and 16 points, respectively.
Bedford, as Tech’s best perimeter defender, will likely see some time defending Harris - anything less than 20 for Harris is a solid performance from Bedford, assuming he takes that defensive matchup. The Hokies could also use a Bedford resurgence on the offensive end. He dropped a season-high 25 points in the first matchup, but began his recent slump in the second Wake game, shooting below 32% over the last four games.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 79 Wake Forest 70
Virginia Tech will grab a 10-point lead early. While it will threaten to become a blowout at times, an ultra-aggressive Juke Harris will keep the Deacons in striking distance. Still, it won’t be enough as Avdalas will once again slice up Wake’s defense with 15 points and seven assists, while Tobi Lawal will dominate the interior with a double-double. Ben Hammond will find double-digits per usual, while Jaden Schutt will break out of his mini-shooting slump with a couple treys.
