Following a win at Miami, the Virginia Tech Hokies (12-15, 7-9 ACC) will play host to the No. 19 Louisville Cardinals (21-6, 14-2) on Tuesday, February 23, at 9 p.m. ET in Blacksburg, Virginia. Let’s dive into the keys to the game plus a prediction for tonight’s showdown.
Can Bench Players Step Up Again?
Tech is coming off a 13-point victory over the Miami Hurricanes, led by strong performances from the bench.
Jaydon Young recorded a career-high 27 points (9-15 FG, 5-11 3FG), leading all scorers in route to Tech’s first victory since knocking off Notre Dame on February 8.
Ben Burnham (14 pts) and Patrick Wessler (10 pts), joined Young as the only other Hokies in double figure scoring, and the three bench stars out scored all five of Tech’s starters combined.
This is both a positive and a negative for the Hokies,who showed that they have quality depth on the bench, and yet their starters (Tobi Lawal, 9 points; Mylajeal Poteat, 6 points; Ben Hammond, 3 points; Tyler Johnson, 7 points; and Jaden Schutt, 3 points) combined for just 28 of Tech’s 81 points and will need to be better in this game.
While this was successful against the Hurricanes, the Cardinals are a completely different opponent. If Tech wants to upset Louisville, it’ll take a total team effort including continued strong play from backups like Young and Burnham.
Limit Chuck’s Hepburn and J’Vonne Hadley's Production
Louisville has dropped just six games all year, and only two in the ACC, earning them a top 25 ranking, just two weeks before the conference tournament.
The Cardinals are led by senior guard Chucky Hepburn, who averaged 15.6 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds a contest. He is joined by fellow senior guard, J’Vonne Hadley, who tallied 12.6 points, 1.8 assists, and a team high 7.3 rebounds a game.
Louisville is looking for its sixth straight win and to avoid a loss to keep it in contention for the regular-season ACC title. It is tied with No. 13 Clemson for second place in the conference and just one game back from the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils.
Hepburn and Hadley have both been crucial to their success and if the Hokies want to pull off this upset, they have to find a way to slow these two down, especially Hepburn who has proven to be one of the best point guards in America.
The Hokies must beware of Hepburn when Tech has the ball in their hands, as the crafty guard leads the ACC in steals per game (2.5), and will be looking to lock up Tech’s young point guard duo of Ben Hammond and Brandon Rechsteiner. Tech’s point guards will need to be on their A game or Hepburn will make this a long night for the Hokies.
Start Hot Offensively
Tech must get started quickly on offense if they want a chance to compete with the No. 19 team in the country. After notching just 11 points in the first half against Boston College, Mike Young and the Hokies made a change against Miami.
Tech recorded 48 points in the first half versus the Canes. This was due to Mike Young trusting whoever had the hot hand. In this case, it was Jaydon Young
Instead of relying on just the starters to produce, Tech plays 5-6 reserves a game, with Mike Young not afraid to adjust minutes to fit who is playing best, as we’ve seen especially in the backcourt with guys like Jaden Schutt, Tyler Johnson, and Jaydon Young having great fluctuations in their minutes at times.
Louisville allows nearly 70 points a game (69.4) scored against them, which is 99th in the country, with the Hokies right on their heels at 71.7. Four of Louisville’s losses have come to top-25 opponents, showing that it takes a high level of play to upset Louisville.
While Louisville has a solid defense, they are gettable and the Hokies will need to take control early and try to hold on against a Louisville team that is playing a much higher level of basketball this season.
Tech will need to look like a top team in the country if they want to compete with the Cardinals. To achieve that, they will need to rely on the entire team, limit Louisville’s guards production, and start off hot from the opening tip-off.
If the Hokies can secure the upset victory, it will get them one step closer to finishing with a 0.500 record in the ACC and potentially earning a top nine seed to avoid playing on the opening day of the ACC Tournament.
Prediction: No. 19 Louisville 76, Virginia Tech 69
While the Hokies are coming fresh off a victory over the Hurricanes, and have the support of Cassell Coliseum at their backs, Louisville has been tremendous all season. The biggest difference between the two squads is seniority. The Cardinals start five seniors, compared to just one for the Hokies (Poteat).
Outside of Tech’s big man, Hammond and Johnson are both true freshmen. Schutt is a redshirt sophomore who was sidelined for the prior year due to injury, and Tobi Lawal is the second most experienced starter despite only being a junior.
I believe that the Hokies will keep it close and perform well on their home court. However, it will not be enough to stop the Cardinals' offensive attack.
