Following Virginia Tech’s 71-65 win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday, freshman center Christian Gurdak described Cassell Coliseum as a somewhat “haunted place” for the Duke Blue Devils and it's hard to disagree with him.
The Hokies have won five of their last seven meetings with the Blue Devils in Cassell Coliseum. In fact, Tech is just pretty hard to beat on its home court, where it boasts an 11-1 record this season. Even in 2023-24 - the last time Duke made its way to Blacksburg - the Hokies hung tough with the Blue Devils, losing 77-67 in one of two home losses during the entire season.
However, this matchup will be anything but easy. No. 4 Duke (NET No. 2) is on an eight-game winning streak and has won its last three games by an average of 27 points. Even more concerning is the fact that Tech lost to each team Duke just walloped - Stanford, Wake Forest and No. 20 Louisville.
Duke is led by projected top three pick Cameron Boozer, who leads the ACC in scoring at nearly 24 points per game. He has reached the 30-point threshold in two of the last three outings.
Virginia Tech (NET No. 54) has won three of its last four games, but its wins against Syracuse and Georgia Tech came in concerning fashion - nearly blowing big leads in the final minutes.
Some people have joked the Hokies are a five-seed for the first 37 minutes of the game and a mid-major down the stretch. Even if they are able to do what Duke’s last four opponents haven’t and keep the game competitive, the Hokies can not afford any more late-game mismanagement against a team at the caliber of the Blue Devils.
The stakes are high virtually every game for Virginia Tech right now. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has it as his “first team out” in his latest bracketology. While an upset win would all but seal a tournament bid for the Hokies, even just keeping the game close would improve its predictive metrics and possibly put Tech back in the field of 68. That being said, the Hokies will need a few more Quadrant 1 wins to boost their case as a tournament team - particularly after the Syracuse win dropped to a Quadrant 2 victory. Saturday will be the first of many opportunities as we inch towards march madness.
Unfortunately, the Hokies will once again be without starting forward Tyler Johnson, who sets his sights for a return against NC State on Saturday, February 7.
Despite the snow forecasts, Duke will enter a packed Cassell Coliseum on Saturday, January 31 for a noon tipoff in the Hokies lone ESPN game this season. Let’s take a look at some keys of the game:
Can Virginia Tech Handle Duke’s Size?
The Blue Devils have NBA size at every position, which shouldn’t come as a surprise as much of the roster will get an opportunity in the pros. The only areas the Hokies lack size are at point guard with 5-foot-11 Ben Hammond and at power forward with Amani Hansberry standing at a generous 6-foot-8.
Hammond’s issues are more likely to come on the defensive end. While his lateral quickness and twitchy hands make Hammond a well-above average defender, he will likely guard 6-foot-5 Caleb Foster, who will attempt to abuse this size mismatch. Foster, a 50% shooter from within-the-arc, will look to use his height to either score over Hammond or draw double teams and force Virginia Tech into a defensive scramble. Hammond is far too valuable for Mike Young to take off the floor, but he will be tested based on his natural limitations.
Hansberry’s struggles are more likely to come on the other side of the ball. While he has been Virginia Tech’s best player for much of the season, he has struggled to generate efficient offense against teams with interior size.
Against Virginia, he managed an impressive 17 points and 15 rebounds, but shot just 5 of 16 from the floor and 3-for-11 from two-point range. Duke has an imposing one-two punch as Boozer has the strength to keep bigs out of the low post while Patrick Ngongba holds down the middle with his shot-blocking ability (1.3 bpg).
Duke’s interior defense doesn’t stack up to that of UVA’s, but it could be enough to give Hansberry a hard time, which would be a very troubling sign for Virginia Tech, which needs virtually everything to go right in order to pull off the upset.
Rivaling Shot Charts
Despite his reputation as a coach that relies on three-point shooting, Young’s squad actually takes less triples than most ACC teams. Just over 39% of Virginia Tech’s shot attempts come from long range - a testament to Tech's three-level scoring ability with players such as Hammond, Avdalas and Hansberry who are more than happy to work in the mid-range.
Virginia Tech is also good at getting to the stripe, especially Tobi Lawal who has a ridiculous 96.6 free throw attempt rate. That means he nearly shoots one free throw for every one shot attempt. Duke is one of the best teams in the country at playing without fouling, so it will be important to see if Tech can continue finding ways to get to the line.
Despite its relatively-low three point rate, Virginia Tech has shown the ability to get hot from long range, hence its 11 three pointer made in the second half at Louisville last Saturday. By far its best shooter is Jaden Schutt - a Duke transfer - who is a 41% three point shooter and is coming off just his second game of the season without a made triple. While Duke holds its opponents to a low three point percentage (31%), it allows a lot of attempts (27 per game). Virginia Tech needs Schutt and some of its three point shooters to get hot to stay in this game.
The Hokies boast a top-25 three point shooting defense in the country, but will have a tough task defending the Blue Devils and particularly Isaiah Evans. Evans is shooting just 35% from deep this season, but is capable of getting hot at any given moment. In last year’s meeting, he sprayed four triples on the Hokies.
Can Neoklis Avdalas Find His Footing?
Avdalas’ recent struggles are well-documented, so I’m not going to go too deep into this analysis, but it’s pretty obvious he needs to have at the very least a solid game for the Hokies to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
Since taking over as head coach, Jon Scheyer has consistently produced top-notch defenses and this team is no exception. Duke owns the No. 5 defensive rating in all of college basketball and will force the Virginia Tech to work for every bucket. This means Tech will have to hit tough shots and make passes into tight windows to stay in the game. Avdalas, who still paces the Hokies in usage rate, has shown the ability to do both - albeit very inconsistently.
In a game like this, Tech could benefit from a more NBA-style offense, much like the one it ran in Avdalas’ signature performance against Providence. If shots once again aren’t falling, the Hokies will obviously have to look elsewhere for its primary playmaking, but it’s just hard to imagine Virginia Tech winning this game without a big-time Avdalas performance.
Many scouts will be in attendance to watch Boozer, Dame Sarr, and Isaiah Evans for Duke, but they will also be there to lay their eyes on Avdalas - still a fringe first round pick. Can he snap out of this funk with the whole country watching?
Prediction: Duke 83 Virginia Tech 72
Virginia Tech will knock down enough triples to keep it respectable, and Schutt in particular will hit at least four threes against his old team, but it won’t be enough as a Cameron Boozer 20+ point double-double will lead Duke to an 83-72 victory in Cassell Coliseum.
