Virginia Tech's six-game winning streak came to a crashing end today as the Hokies' nightmarish three-point shooting combined with an inability to get to the free-throw line after they got in the bonus with over 8 minutes to go in the second half.
North Carolina beat Virginia Tech 65-57 with the Tar Heels improving improving to 19-8 including 11-5 in the ACC while the Hokies fell to 16-11 including 8-8 in ACC play. It was a game where Tech did a whole lot of things well except shoot the ball as they were better in the paint, on the glass, protecting the basketball, and getting more quality shots yet VT's shooting was so poor that it didn't end up mattering in the end.
So what went wrong and what does today's game mean for the Hokies going forward? Here are my three thoughts on Tech's loss to UNC.
1. Shooting and Lack of Free Throw Nightmare
Virginia Tech outperformed North Carolina in most areas yet there were a couple things that the Hokies struggled at that proved very costly, shooting and getting to the free-throw line.
First, let's take a look at the nightmarish shooting night with the Hokies shooting a poor 37.5% (24-64) from the field including a terrible 5-26 from three-point range. This from a team that has been shooting over 40% from three and ran into a UNC that went 7-15 from three in the first half (though only 1-7 in the second half).
The shooting struggles weren't limited to one player as Nahiem Alleyne and Hunter Cattoor were both 1-6 from three while Justyn Mutts and Storm Murphy were 0-3 from deep and Sean Pedulla was 0-2. Keve Aluma and Darius Maddox were the bright spots with Aluma being 2-3 from deep (6-13 overall on his way to a team high 16 points) and Maddox was 1-2 from deep.
While Tech had struggled from three against UVA and in the second half against Syracuse, the fact of the matter is that this was an atypical night for the Hokies. And it was one where Tech was missing a lot of good, open threes that were worth taking even with the struggles while UNC made some long and contested ones especially from Caleb Love who had a game high 21 points.
After the game, Mike Young summed up Tech's understandable emotions on a night where they did almost everything other than shooting well.
"Sometimes in athletics, you walk out the building scratching your head and this is one of those evenings for me," Young said.
Second, Tech was down 49-41 when Caleb Love picked up his second foul of the game with 9:31 left in the second half. More importantly, it was the Tar Heels seventh of the half putting Tech in the bonus though because it wasn't an offensive foul, it didn't send Tech to the line.
After that, the Hokies didn't get to the free-throw line once. Yes, not a single free throw after that moment.
When you have a team in the bonus with 9:31 to go on your homecourt, you should be able to get to the free-throw line at least once if not a whole bunch of times. The failure to do so given the situation is borderline criminal in the sport of basketball and was maybe the ultimate killer for Tech in this game.
This was understandably another area that was somewhat bewildering and head-scratching for the Hokies with Mike Young intrigued to look at the tape and see if he maybe had Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts on the perimeter too much.
The good news for Virginia Tech is that given what we've seen most of the season from deep and from what we've seen prior to tonight during the winning streak in terms of getting to the free-throw line, these things should be resolvable.
Unfortunately for the Hokies, the bad night showed up in a critical bubble game.
2. A Lot Went Right For Virginia Tech
That's part of why this game is so head-scratching for the Hokies is the fact that there was a whole lot that went right for Tech in this game.
It all started in the paint where the Hokies had a 34-20 points in the paint advantage that seemed unlikely along with a more unlikely 9-5 offensive rebounding advantage that became a 10-6 second chance points advantage. That's a major positive for Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts who combined for 5 of those offensive rebounds and each were in double figures.
Additionally, the Hokies had only 9 turnovers on the game while they also did well to stay out of foul trouble prior to the end of the game. That combination of fewer turnovers and more offensive rebounds led to the Hokies shooting 15 more shots than UNC, a stat that is slightly inflated due to the end-of-game sequence but was still poised to be a double figure difference even without that.
They also consistently were running good offense and getting more quality looks than the Tar Heels were based on watching the game.
When you are better offensively in the paint, win the battle on the glass, run the offense that produced better shots, and actually had 15 more shot attempts than your opponent; you're going to win most basketball games.
Instead, Tech was significantly worse in the one stat that mattered the most, shooting, with Tech shooting 37.5% from the field including 5-26 from three while UNC was 44.9% from the field including 8-22 from three.
And in the end, basketball is a game where one stat truly matters way more than the rest, shooting.
3. A Must Win Looms at Miami Next Saturday
The Hokies had a very thin margin for error entering this game with only being able to afford one loss at most to either UNC or Miami to still have a realistic at-large bid chance. That margin is gone after today's loss to the Tar Heels with all focus turning to a must win game against Miami a week from today after a trip to Georgia Tech.
The reality for Virginia Tech is the fact that the Hokies' lack of a Q1 win is an anchor sinking their NCAA Tournament hopes in an ACC
Additionally, losing to a UNC team that is right with them on the bubble hurts because let's be honest, the committee will not see how this game played out and how the shooting was outside of the norm for the Hokies, they'll see an 8-point loss.
However, similar to how UNC was in a hole needing a Q1 win after a shocking home loss to Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech has their golden ticket chance within a week of their on-the-brink loss with a trip to Miami next Saturday afternoon. While the Hurricanes aren't nearly as high in the NET as North Carolina, their NET is good enough to make this a Q1 opportunity for the Hokies because it's on the road.
While a win at Miami wouldn't be a great signature win, it would still fall into Q1 and be a boost to their resume just like today's win for UNC is a major boost for the Tar Heels. Additionally, it would give Tech another quality win over a likely NCAA Tournament team or a fellow bubble team with the Hokies currently only having the wins over Notre Dame and St. Bonaventure.
Of course, Tech also has three other must wins at Georgia Tech and Clemson, and at home against Louisville but none of those are games that move the needle beyond stacking up wins on the record. The Miami game has the ability to do provide an extra jolt.
The margin for error was thin yet Tech had tiptoed through perfectly till today. Now, the Hokies need a win at Miami (along with winning the 3 other games that are left) or else their NCAA Tournament hopes likely come down to winning the ACC Tournament or at least reaching the final in Brooklyn.
