Virginia Tech (12-4, NET No. 59) looks to bounce back from a frustrating home loss against Stanford as it hosts California (13-3, Net No. 65).
These teams faced off twice a year ago as the Hokies won 71-68 a year ago from tomorrow, but the Golden Bears got revenge ending Tech’s season with an 82-73 double-overtime win in the ACC tournament.
Cal has completed half of its Virginia trip, falling to UVA 84-60 in John Paul Jones Arena on Wednesday. That’s its second 20-point loss in just three games of conference play, losing 90-70 at home against Louisville. Its only conference win was a 72-71 Quad 2 victory over Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech is now on the wrong side of the bubble after suffering a 13-point blown lead with just over three minutes left to lose against Stanford on Wednesday. That was its second consecutive game losing on a game-winning triple after falling 81-78 at Wake Forest last Saturday. Tech’s only conference win was a 95-85 triple-overtime win over UVA.
Let's take a look at the keys to the game for two teams that could really use this win to stay in the March Madness chase:
Three-Point Shooting
Cal is a solid three-point shooting team at over 36% on the season, but just had its worst shooting game of the season, going 3-for-19 from behind-the-arc in the loss against Virginia. The Golden Bears need to bounce back from deep if they hope to beat the Hokies, who have an elite three-point defense, allowing just over 29% on the season.
UVA transfer Dai Dai Ames has been lights out at over 43% from deep, while former Hokie John Camden knocks down a team-high 2.6 triples per game at nearly 39%.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has been hot and cold from three-point land, hitting double-digit triples in six games, but shooting just 33% over the last four outings. Fortunately, it isn’t as reliant on the long ball as most ACC teams, with less than 38% of its attempts coming from long range.
The Hokies need to get Jaden Schutt going, as he knocked down two early triples before going silent for the last 30 minutes of the loss to Stanford. Schutt has made a three in every game this season.
Rebounding
The Hokies should have an advantage on the glass as Cal’s premier rebounder, Lee Dort, can only match up with one of Tobi Lawal, Amani Hansberry and Christian Gurdak. This should give at least one Hokie a mismatch on the interior for much of the game.
Matchup to Watch: Neoklis Avdalas vs Justin Pippen
Avdalas is quite the matchup nightmare as a 6-foot-9 point guard and the likeliest matchup for him today is Pippen. While Pippen stands at just 6-foot-3, he possesses some of those defensive qualities that his father, Scottie Pippen, had.
Pippen is coming off of a 17-point performance where he also had five steals. Avdalas is coming off a 21-point performance, but he has been far more turnover prone, with 15 turnovers in the last three games.
It will be interesting to see if Avdalas can post up Pippen like he did against virtually anyone Stanford threw at him on Wednesday.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 78 California 71
Tobi Lawal will have a bigger impact in his second game back from injury and the Hokies frontcourt will take care of the glass as the Hokies will pick up a much-needed bounce-back win against California, 78-71.
