The 10th seeded Virginia Tech Hokies (13-18, 8-12) take on the 15th seeded California Golden Bears (13-18, 6-14) in the first round of the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament. California is ranked 126th in NET ranking, while Virginia Tech is 167th. However, the Hokies recovered from a historically bad performance throughout non-conference play and outplayed the Golden Bears during conference play.
In their only matchup this season, Virginia Tech flew across the country to defeat California 71-68, as Andrej Stojakovic missed a buzzer-beating triple that would have forced overtime.
On the neutral site in the Spectrum Center, this is a quadrant 3 game for both teams. California is 3-3 in quadrant three games while the Hokies are 3-2.
Despite their lower seed, Cal enters the game as 2.5 point favorites. Let's take a look at some key factors that will determine who faces Stanford in the second round.
Play Without Fouling
California is one of the top teams nationally at getting to the free throw line, taking over 23 free throws per game which they knock down at a 74.6% clip. Andrej Stojakovic leads the way for the Golden Bears, hitting 4.6 of his 5.6 free throw attempts per game. In the matchup on January 11th, Stojakovic had a game high 24 points on 7/7 from the line. California as a whole drilled 17 of their 21 free throw tries. Stojakovic, specifically, finds his shot by getting to the line which opens up the rest of his offense.
The Hokies have to play without fouling and make California score on them in the half court set without getting free points.
Take Care of the Ball
While it has mostly gotten better as of late, the Hokies have suffered from turnover problems all season long and their turnover total is often the difference between winning and losing. Virginia Tech is 0-8 when they turn it over at least 16 times and 13-10 when they turn it over 15 or fewer times. The Hokies will be relying on freshman Ben Hammond to run the show, and if he plays as well as he has over the past month, they’ll be in good shape to move on to the second round.
Who Leads the Way in Scoring for the Hokies?
The Hokies haven’t had a true number one scorer all season long as Tobi Lawal leads the team at 12.2 points per game and is the only Hokie averaging double figures. Virginia Tech has had eight different players lead the team in scoring in a game this season.
While it is a positive to have depth and a lot of guys who can get buckets, it also hurts the Hokies not having a consistent offensive threat they can trust. Jaden Schutt looks like a lead scorer at times, but he’s also been held scoreless in three of the last six games. Tobi Lawal is the team’s leading scorer due to his size and unreal athleticism, but he is still very raw on the offensive end and has been known to disappear some games.
Recently, the most consistent bucket getter has been sophomore guard Jaydon Young, who is averaging 17 points over the last five games including two 26+ point outings. However, on the season Young’s shooting splits are still horrendous at just 35% from the field and 32% from long range.
Mike Young and his staff will be playing a waiting game, figuring out which player is having a good night. If the Hokies have more than one player getting hot at the same time, they’ll be moving on to the second round. If not, they better hope their defense (ranked 168th by KenPom) can generate a lot of stops.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 74, California 69
While this is a very losable game for the Hokies, Virginia Tech got blessed with a very favorable bracket, facing California - the last team to qualify for the ACC tournament - and Stanford if they move on to the next round. While it is difficult to beat the same team twice, Virginia Tech will have much more support from the crowd due to the location of the tournament and also has been the better team for the latter half of the season. Tobi Lawal will return from his injury/illness and pick up a 15+ point, 10+rebound double-double, and will be joined in double figures by Jaydon Young, as the Hokies will pick up a 74-69 win in the Spectrum Center.
