Good morning Hokies! It’s Gameday!!!!!!!!!!!!
The 105th Commonwealth Cup has arrived with Virginia Tech looking for their 19th win over UVA in the past 20 matchups. Unfortunately, this is also the seventh time in the past 13 years that the Hokies have faced UVA needing to beat the Cavaliers to become bowl eligibility.
There’s no denying the fact that Virginia Tech has massively missed expectations after showing signs of a potential turnaround to save the season with a three-game winning streak against Stanford, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Whatever the result of this game may be, this shouldn’t change the fact that Brent Pry needs to make changes after this season, especially with a program that plateaued this season despite ranking top 5 in returning production.
However, let’s put the disappointment and frustration aside for a day to enjoy this rivalry (since we’ll have a whole offseason to discuss it and the changes that do or don’t happen) because these games are foundational to the greatness of college football.
Regardless of the records, this game helps define legacies for both coaches and players.
Look at J.C. Price whose legacy grew greatly back in 2021 when he as interim head coach led the Hokies to victory over UVA and delivered the remembered “This is my school, this is home” line postgame.
Look at Emmanuel Belmar who will be in part remembered for his game-sealing fumble recovery against UVA in 2018.
Look at Bryce Perkins who will be remembered for leading UVA to their lone victory in the past 19 games against VT in 2019 to end the drought and beat out VT for the ACC Coastal title. Imagine if Tech wins that game and Justin Fuente would then have 9+ wins in three of four seasons at the helm including two Coastal titles rather than only one Coastal title and a downward trajectory.
Look at Anthony Colandrea who already has a legacy of talking a lot and not being able to cash the check after guaranteeing UVA would beat VT last year the week before the game. That went straight to the bulletin board in Blacksburg with Virginia Tech delivering a dominant rout over UVA.
And that’s just within the past several years of VT-UVA games that I’ve gotten to cover. Regardless of how either team has done in that season, this game continues to provide moments for players to define their legacies.
So let's dive into our full preview for the 105th edition of the Commonwealth Cup.
Gameday Preview
With kickoff just hours away, let’s get you ready for this showdown between Virginia Tech and Virginia.
Keys to the Game: With Pop Watson likely starting, this has to be a run-oriented approach around a healthy Bhayshul Tuten plus some Jeremiah Coney wrinkled in (or Malachi Thomas if he is legitimately healthy). Tech needs to run the football effectively in this game or if not, the Hokies could be in some serious trouble in this one.
Tech also needs to win the turnover battle against a UVA team not known for forcing a lot of turnovers, but also one that has an interception-prone Anthony Colandrea, who has five games with 2+ interceptions this season. Winning the turnover battle is usually a strong indicator of success as we all know, but Tech has become quite good and winning that battle over the past couple years and will need to do so again on a day where they likely will have their third-string quarterback starting.
Hokies to Watch: You can check out my Hokies to Watch feature here. Note that Bhayshul Tuten looked much more like himself last week with 84 rushing yards on 19 carries including a 29-yard touchdown where he hit over 20mph at one point. A healthy Tuten is a dangerous situation for a UVA defense that is allowing 4.0 yards per carry this season. Tech also could use Tuten at his best with a strong possibility that redshirt freshman QB Pop Watson makes his first career start in this game.
Virginia Tech X-Factor: Aeneas Peebles has arguably been the best interior rusher in the country and as you’ll see later on, Virginia has one of the worst pass blocking groups in the country. While Antwaun Powell-Ryland will get the spotlight from UVA’s gameplan, you can only try to chip and double team so many guys before you have to go one-on-one. That could mean big things for Peebles in his first and only opportunity to play in the Commonwealth Cup.
UVA X-Factor: In our Inside the Enemy piece with UVA beat reporter Mike Barber, he mentions talented sophomore linebacker Kam Robinson as an x-factor given his impressive athleticism and range. That will be especially value facing off against Bhayshul Tuten who can gash defenses between the tackles and on the edge, and will certainly be a centerpiece of the offensive gameplan.
Key Stat: Virginia is tied for 130th in the country in sacks allowed with 42 this season. Only Hawaii with 43 has allowed more sacks than the Cavaliers this season. Meanwhile, the Hokies rank in the top 30 in the country in sacks led of course by Antwaun Powell-Ryland who has 13 himself. This could be a massive day for the Hokies’ pass rush, with Powell-Ryland knowing he needs at least two to chase down Marshall’s Mike Green, who leads the nation with 15 sacks.
Injury Watch: Brent Pry said on Tuesday that both Kyron Drones and Collin Schlee are questionable for this game against Virginia as Drones works to recover from a lower leg injury while Schlee recovers from a head injury. If neither are able to go, redshirt freshman Pop Watson will make his first career start after playing from the second quarter onward against Duke last week.
ACC Championship Game Race Update: SMU is in the ACC Championship while Miami needs to beat Syracuse to clinch a spot. If they lose to the Orange, Clemson will face the Mustangs in Charlotte next week.
Predictions
Tim Thomas
With Virginia Tech likely starting third-string QB Pop Watson, this has all the makings of a low-scoring football game. Watson has shown some promise but is also still a young quarterback who now has his tendencies on tape, something that UVA should be able to take advantage of.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has a clear advantage in the trenches on the defensive side that should give UVA's offense lots of issues. The Cavaliers have allowed 42 sacks this season, with only Hawaii allowing more sacks than UVA entering this week. There's no reason why Tech shouldn't have a dominant pass rush display in this matchup, with Antwaun Powell-Ryland having a great chance to add greatly to his 13 sacks and chase down the national lead of 15 held by Marshall DE and fellow 757 native Mike Green.
That may get exaggerated further by the fact that UVA's most effective running back Xavier Brown is out for the season while Kobe Pace is banged up and may miss this game as well. This could end up being a very one-dimensional UVA that gives a strong VT pass rush led by Powell-Ryland and Aeneas Peebles plenty of opportunities to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback.
One of the most crucial parts of this game is the fact that Bhayshul Tuten is looking healthy especially after running for 84 yards and a touchdown last week against Duke. A healthy Tuten who can handle 20-25 carries is crucial to success for Tech in this game, and the Hokies' star RB appears capable of doing that.
In the end, I think is a great matchup for a VT defense that has been highly effective at generating sacks and interceptions while a healthier Tuten will allow the Hokies to generate enough offense to take care of business against UVA.
