With just a month to go in the season, it is getting to be time that we take a look at where the Hokies stand in postseason selection. Weekly, I am going to dive into Virginia Tech’s resume along with diving into the projections from the two prominent college baseball publications: D1Baseball and Baseball America.
Resume
To start things off, let’s take a brief look at the resume that the Hokies boast as of this publishing. Virginia Tech currently sits at 26-15 (10-11) with strong resume building wins over Louisville and Wake Forest, who they combined to go 5-1 against. The general RPI line to be on or close to the bubble is 45, the Hokies currently sit at 32 in the RPI. A new ranking system is being used by the selection committee in the KPI, and Virginia Tech sits at a very favorable 25th in the nation in the KPI.
Current Projections
D1Baseball
D1Baseball’s most recent regional projections has Virginia Tech traveling to East Tennessee to be the two seed in the Knoxville Regional, hosted by the University of Tennessee. Along with Tennessee, the Hokies would take part in the regional with Xavier (3) and SEMO (4).
Tennessee is the clear favorite in this regional as the host. The good thing for the Hokies is that college baseball is much like college basketball in the way of its unpredictability. Tennessee has shown the nation that it is absolutely mortal, losing two of its last three series’ in conference, both to unranked teams. Tennessee is arguably the best pitching team in the country, sitting at third in ERA (3.17) and first in strikeouts per nine (12.1). They are also among the nation’s top hitting teams, currently in the top 15 of on base percentage and home runs.
Xavier, on the other hand, is a difficult team to gauge. They’ve won two of their last three series’ in Big East play, with all of those series being sweeps. They are also coming off of a win against Cincinnati in the midweek and a loss to Wright State the following day. They are clearly a talented and capable team, but figuring out which version of them we would see a month from now is an impossible task.
Lastly, Southeastern Missouri State, or SEMO. They boast an impressive 10-5 record in the Ohio Valley Conference, which they are champions of in three of the last four seasons. They have won their last four consecutive series, but most of those have been competitive. I do think it is safe to say that SEMO has not played their best baseball, and they are one of the teams that hosts hate to see in their regional year after year.
Baseball America
Baseball America gives the Hokies a likewise difficult challenge for their regional, as they are projected to be in the Fayetteville Regional, hosted by the Arkansas Razorbacks. The other two projected teams in the regional are UTSA (3) and Oral Roberts (4).
Much like Tennessee, Arkansas would be the clear favorite in this regional. They currently sit at 36-7 and second in the SEC standings. They, though, have lost their last two series, showing that they have cooled down from their previous 31-3 record. They are also one of the best pitching teams in the country, sitting at 11th in ERA and 10th in strikeouts, boasted by one of the best bullpens in the nation, having ten bullpen pitchers with a sub 5.00 ERA and at least 12.0 innings pitched. They will undoubtedly be a tall task for the Hokies should they face off in the regionals.
The three seed is projected to be UTSA, who is 30-10 and 12-3 in conference play. They have not lost a series since the beginning of March, where they dropped 2-3 to Dallas Baptist, who is currently a top 30 RPI team. The thing about this team is that they hit the ball very well. They are among the nations leaders in doubles, batting average, and slugging percentage. The Hokies pitching would be tested in a hypothetical game on scenario against this team.
The last projected team is Oral Roberts, who is a dangerous program. They recently made the College World Series in Omaha just two years ago, going as far as winning a game there as well. This team doesn’t necessarily do anything that jumps off the page, but they are summit league champions in 23 of the last 27 years, so they’re doing something right. They, as always, will be a threat to any team that they take the field with in June.
Upcoming Resume Boosters
As of now, the Hokies are safely in the picture, but things could get sticky very quickly if they keep struggling. They currently have three ACC series’ remaining, two of which come on the road against Duke and Pitt. Duke is a team in a similar position to the Hokies. They are top 40 in the RPI and this series would be a massive chance to boost their RPI. They need to avoid losing to the likes of Pitt and UVA, as they both sit outside of the top 90 in RPI, and series losses to them could really dampen the Hokies chances of making the tournament, especially if you compile that with a series loss to Duke. Sitting just one game under .500 in ACC play, the Hokies are looking for 4-6 more wins to find themselves in the picture.
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